[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 012000
SWODY1
SPC AC 011958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2005

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 50 S SAT
35 NE DRT 25 WSW FST 25 SSE CNM 50 NW GDP ONM 50 NNW GUP 30 SSE CNY
35 SSW VEL 25 NNE VEL 45 ESE RKS 45 SW LAR 20 SE 4FC 25 ENE PUB 20
SSW LAA EHA 60 SSW LBL 45 WNW CSM 25 SSW OKC 20 WSW MLC 40 W TXK 30
N GGG 30 SSE TYR 10 WNW LFK 35 NNW BPT 25 SSE BPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO N TX...
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA MOVING ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
FEATURE...TCU AND CB HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NM/CO WITH A FEW ISOLATED
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING OVER NM LAST HOUR. THIS IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS W TX THIS EVENING AND TO NW/CNTRL TX
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE...AIRMASS ACROSS TX
WAS QUITE DRY THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM THE
PECOS VLY NWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEEP
LAYER OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC/STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THESE AREAS
BEFORE DARK. ANY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...
AFTER DARK...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND LIFT AND MOISTENING WILL
INCREASE AS ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE STRENGTHENS. THIS PROCESS SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE NM/TX BORDER EWD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE AND CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN THIS REGIME...IT APPEARS
THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRONG SHEAR...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
OFFSET THESE DEFICIENCIES FOR AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF A
COUPLE OF HAIL STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

..CARBIN.. 03/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.