[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011632
SWODY1
SPC AC 011631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 50 SE LRD 10
S LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 45 NNW BGS 25 ENE PVW 50 N CDS 45 WNW
OKC 60 E OKC 30 E MLC 15 WSW TXK 50 ENE LFK 20 S BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S AST 30 N MFR 35
S RBL 15 NNW SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW 4CR 15 W ONM 30
SSW GNT 45 SW CEZ 15 ESE VEL 35 SE RKS 35 WSW RWL 15 ESE RWL 15 SSE
LAR 25 NE DEN 45 SSE LHX 35 NNE TCC 35 WNW CVS 15 SW 4CR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER WRN NM/ WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS TX TONIGHT AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF
ASSOCIATED SLY LLJ WHICH WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY
VEER OVERNIGHT.  MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH
SHOULD EXPAND INTO AN MCS AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL TX
TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL/DRY...SUGGESTING
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND REMAIN ROOTED NEAR H85.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND HAIL AT OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NM HIGH PLAINS...
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM. 
THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THESE AREAS. 
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE ERN NM PLAINS DUE TO VERY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY AS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY BECOME COLLOCATE.

...PAC NW...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPPER LOW NOW NEAR 41N/130W
WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN CA/ORE COASTS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..EVANS/BROYLES.. 03/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.