[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011301
SWODY1
SPC AC 011259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW FMN 50 NE U28
35 NNW CAG 25 NE 4FC 35 NE ALS 35 E TCC 40 W CSM 30 E OKC 40 ESE PGO
25 SSE TXK 20 WNW GLS 40 S VCT 25 SSW HDO 30 SW MAF 35 WSW ROW 45
SSW GNT 65 WSW FMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW AST 15 SW SLE
35 SW MFR 10 S RBL 45 NW SFO.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW OVER IND/OH WILL MOVE E/NE INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER MANITOBA DROPS SE INTO
THE OH VLY.  IN THE SRN BRANCH...WELL-DEFINED IMPULSE NEARING THE
FOUR CORNERS SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS TODAY BEFORE
ASSUMING SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE RED RIVER VLY OF TX
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT LWR LEVELS...APPROACH OF FOUR CORNERS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED LEE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN HI PLNS. 
MOISTURE RETURN WILL...HOWEVER...BE MEAGER AS SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION
 IS STILL IN PROGRESS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPRECIABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.


...SRN CO/NM INTO SRN OK/NRN AND CNTRL TX...
COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE CO AND NM
MOUNTAINS TODAY.  GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY STRONG. COUPLED WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL AS THEY DRIFT/
DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS...DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER NRN AND CNTRL TX
AND POSSIBLY SRN OK.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED /BASED NEAR 700
MB/ AND WILL FEED ON PACIFIC MOISTURE BROUGHT EWD WITH UPPER TROUGH.
 GIVEN 40-45 KTS CLOUD LAYER SHEAR...DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT AND
PRESENCE OF 300-400 J/KG MUCAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  THE ACTIVITY COULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

..CORFIDI.. 03/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.