[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010517
SWODY1
SPC AC 010515

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FMN 55 WSW ALS
35 E TCC 40 W CSM 15 S OKC 25 SE MLC 35 NNW SHV 25 NE VCT 20 W NIR
25 SSW HDO 30 SW MAF 35 WSW ROW 30 SSE GUP 20 SW FMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL DEVELOP
NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS NEXT UPSTREAM JET
STREAK DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT
LAKES. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER CO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MEAN INTERMOUNTAIN W RIDGE BEFORE
EMERGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS
FROM CNTRL CANADA SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP OVER ERN NM WITH WEAK
WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM E-CNTRL NM TO THE UPPER TX
COAST.

...NM INTO TX/SRN OK...
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/WRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED WITH SBCAPES AOB 100-200 J/KG. MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER THE
POOR INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND FIELDS BELOW 6 KM AGL SUGGEST ANY
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW.

ADDITIONAL MORE ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL INTO N TX AND SRN OK WITHIN
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG 30-40 KT SLY LLJ AXIS.
GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG AND
AROUND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAINLY OVER N
TX. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND SPREAD AS
FAR E AS THE ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

..MEAD.. 03/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.