[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301557
SWODY1
SPC AC 301555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
JHW 15 WNW MGW 25 S UNI LEX BWG DYR FSM FSI AMA DHT TAD COS DEN AKO
45 SSW GLD 40 NNE GCK RSL STJ BRL CGX 45 W MBS 15 NE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 15 S SDY 25
SSE MLS 50 S SHR 35 NNW RIW 30 NNW RIW 40 SE JAC 10 NNW IDA 45 ENE
SUN 35 WSW SUN 15 NNW BOI 10 E LWS 30 S GEG 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 75
E DUG 45 NNW SVC 40 SSE ABQ 20 NNW LVS 10 SW ALS 45 SW LAR 50 ENE
DGW 30 NE CDR 35 W VTN 45 W EAR 10 WSW LNK 25 W DBQ 20 W MSN 35 E
AUW 50 E IWD 70 NNW CMX ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG ...CONT... 35
SW GLS 10 S LFK 20 WNW GGG 40 SW PRX 70 SSE CDS 15 WNW BGS 80 SW
P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS MID
MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE STRONG SUMMERTIME LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT UPPER MS VALLEY
WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE TRAILS FROM THE ONTARIO
SURFACE LOW S AND THEN SWWD ACROSS LS TO CENTRAL IA AND BACK TO ERN
CO.  OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED SURFACE BOUNDARIES WELL
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  CURRENT ACTIVE MCS SERN MI/NWRN OH TRAILS A
BOUNDARY WSWWD INTO CENTRAL IL WITH ANOTHER E/W BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL MO/KS.

...LOWER MI/OH/IND/IL...
STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE
MOIST AIR MASS STILL AVAILABLE IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS ACTIVITY. 
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WITH THE
INCREASING AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  SHEAR WILL RANGE DOWNWARD FROM 30-40KT
OVER GREAT LAKES TO AROUND 20KT OH VALLEY.  GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS ALONG WITH HAIL.

THE CURRENT MCS LIKELY TO CONTINUE E/SEWD ACROSS ERN OH VALLEY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...THE WELL ORGANIZED COLD
POOL LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
DESTABILIZES DOWN STREAM AIR MASS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS WWD TO ERN CO...
MOIST AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN VERY
UNSTABLE WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS MUCH OF AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.  ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO FORM IN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN ERN CO. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY HIGH BASES AND LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS WILL BE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ONLY A SMALL RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES.

ONE OR MORE MCS/S ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE
SEWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINING A RISK OF SEVERE AFTER DARK.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.