[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 302000
SWODY1
SPC AC 301959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
JHW LBE 15 NE EKN SSU 15 SW BKW 40 SSE JKL BWG HOP 60 ENE LIT HOT
OKC 35 S AMA 35 ESE LVS 40 ESE ALS 4FC DEN 10 W LHX EHA GCK 20 NW
SLN 15 WNW TOP MKC VIH BLV DEC 20 SSW MMO MKE MBL 35 ENE PLN
...CONT... 45 SE OSC 30 ENE FNT JXN FWA MIE 40 WSW DAY 35 SE DAY CMH
20 N MFD 10 NNE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP NIR 45 N
BPT ESF MLU TXK 40 SW PRX 70 N ABI 10 W BGS 35 ESE INK 45 E MRF 85
SSW P07 ...CONT... ART UCA 30 NE BGM 35 NNE MSV 10 WSW ALB 10 W BTV
30 NE PBG ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW HVR BIL 81V
LBF 10 ESE LNK 45 ESE SUX MCW LSE 15 S IMT 135 NE CMX ...CONT... 60
SW DMN 55 W ONM SAF 25 SW ALS 4BL 15 NE BCE 20 ESE MLF OGD PIH 10 SW
BOI 30 NNW 4LW 15 NW MFR 25 S SLE 65 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS THRU THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES....

...PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES**...
CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND ITS NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY...TOWARD HUDSON BAY.
 ANOTHER IMPULSE IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH OF CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.  SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING WILL TAG ALONG WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM...PROGRESSING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/OZARKS REGION.

SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS REGION...WHILE CONVECTION
PERSISTS/INCREASES FURTHER IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY WHICH NOW CURVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE IT INTERSECTS
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.  INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE HAS WEAKENED/ BECOME LESS
APPARENT FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER.  THIS
BOUNDARY MAY STILL BECOME FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AS FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  STRONGEST LIFT...AND BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

OTHERWISE...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG
ALONG/SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS.  BETTER SHEAR PROFILES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT BELOW MODERATE
WESTERLIES IS MORE PRONOUNCED...AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  THIS
MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH
COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN
KANSAS/MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 06/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.