[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301240
SWODY1
SPC AC 301238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
ERI PIT 25 S UNI LEX BWG DYR FSM FSI AMA DHT TAD COS DEN AKO 45 SSW
GLD 40 NNE GCK RSL STJ BRL CGX 45 W MBS 15 NE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG
...CONT... 70 NE ISN 15 S SDY 25 SSE MLS 50 S SHR 35 N BPI 25 NW IDA
20 SW 27U 60 SSE S06 25 S GEG 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 10 SE ELP 40 WNW
CNM 45 ENE ROW 55 SW TCC 30 SSE LVS 50 NNW LVS 10 SW ALS 45 SW LAR
60 NE DGW 30 SE RAP 35 W VTN 45 W EAR 30 WSW LNK 20 NNE CID 20 SE
LSE 15 W EAU 35 WNW HIB 10 W INL ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 25 W POE 20
NNW SHV 20 ESE PRX 70 SSE CDS 15 WNW BGS 80 SW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS...INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...LOWER MI/OH/IND THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER MN...WITH
BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM SD/NEB INTO WI/MI. 
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI
AND NORTHERN IND...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD/
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.  AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK IN THIS REGION...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...LOWER MI/OH/IND/IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AIR MASS BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE
RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN IND AND
CENTRAL IL.  CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION.  MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 3000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...MO/KS/OK...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  AIR MASS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT REMAINS MOIST...AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT.  WESTERLY MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS. 
HIGH LCL/S AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THAT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  STORMS MAY
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF OK AND WESTERN MO.

...EASTERN CO...
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN CO.  EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG
HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS.  LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT.

..HART/GUYER.. 06/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.