[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300547
SWODY1
SPC AC 300546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
ERI 10 NNE ZZV 45 NW HTS 35 S LEX 10 SE CKV 15 NW MKL 60 NNW LIT 20
W FSM 20 SSW OKC 15 NNW LTS 65 ENE AMA 40 N AMA 10 N DHT 40 E RTN 15
N TAD COS 15 E DEN 35 WSW AKO 35 ESE AKO 45 SSW GLD 40 NNE GCK 25 W
RSL 20 SSE CNK 10 WSW STJ 30 NE IRK 30 ENE BRL 35 NE MLI 10 ENE JVL
10 S OSH 45 ENE AUW 45 SSW IWD 45 WNW IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 45 SSE SDY
25 SSE MLS 50 S SHR 35 N BPI 25 NW IDA 20 SW 27U 60 SSE S06 25 S GEG
45 NW 63S ...CONT... 20 SE ELP 20 NW CNM 45 ENE ROW 55 SW TCC 30 SSE
LVS 50 NNW LVS 20 ENE ALS 20 SSW LAR 60 NE DGW 30 SE RAP 35 W VTN 45
W EAR 30 WNW BIE 20 NNE CID 35 NNW MSN 15 SE CWA 70 S DLH 40 NW HIB
20 NE RRT ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 30 S AUG ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 25 W
POE 20 NNW SHV 20 ESE PRX 70 SSE CDS 15 WNW BGS 80 SW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO THE PLAINS AND ERN CO...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE UPR MS VLY
TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST THIS PERIOD. SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM MN/IA SWWD
TO KS/CO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES GENERALLY EAST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WI...MI...IND...AND IL.
WHILE STRONGER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AREAS...THE
WEAKER/TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SWD FROM KS/MO INTO OK/AR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE...SFC AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE WRN U.S. WHILE A WEAK UPR TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AHEAD
OF THE STRONGER GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

...GREAT LAKES TO LWR OH VLY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS PARTS
OF UPR AND LWR MI ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT WITHIN
WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING AROUND THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE LARGE
SCALE CYCLONE. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING THAT AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF
UPR MI AND PARTS OF NRN LWR MI. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...FROM SRN LWR MI INTO NRN IND/IL. ANOTHER AXIS OF WEAKER
DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO INDICATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN
UPR MI ACROSS WI BY AFTERNOON.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS  FORMING
ALONG OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WI AS AND UPR MI. AS FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINATION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN CLUSTERS AND LINES WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST PROBABILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM CNTRL IL...EWD ACROSS IND AND
SRN LWR MI...AND INTO SWRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORMING ON THE FRONT OVER WI/UPR MI.

...PLAINS/OZARKS...
TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IDENTIFIED BY SFC WIND SHIFT AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS KS/MO.
WHILE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION
FROM FORMING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VERY STRONG HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL ALL LEAD TO TSTM FORMATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KT ALIGNED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WOULD SUGGEST CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED
STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO A SLOW MOVING
MCS ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK AND SWRN MO THROUGH LATE EVENING. GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...CO/HIGH PLAINS...
MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG HEATING AND PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TOPPED BY 25-40KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN/SERN CO
AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 06/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.