[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300113
SWODY1
SPC AC 300110

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0810 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW
CMX 20 WSW CMX 10 WSW IMT 10 NNE MTW 30 E MKE 40 SSW SBN 20 SSW LAF
20 SSW CMI 20 NNW SPI 20 NNE UIN 25 ENE IRK 25 S P35 25 W OJC 35 ENE
HUT 10 S DDC 15 NNW GCK 35 E HLC 25 SSE HSI 40 ENE OLU SUX 20 ESE
FSD 20 ESE ATY 10 SE ABR 40 SSE JMS 50 SW GFK 65 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BPT 35 NNW POE
25 N HEZ 50 NW MEI 40 NE CBM 20 NNE MSL 15 SSW CKV MDH 55 SSW BLV 25
W VIH 55 SSW SZL 20 N PNC 30 W GAG 30 SSW EHA 15 NNE LAA 30 SSW LIC
15 ENE DEN 20 NNE FCL 40 SSE DGW 25 WNW DGW 25 S COD 30 N 27U 30 ENE
EPH 40 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 NNE GGW 35 WSW GDV 35 NW REJ 50 S Y22
MBG 50 WNW JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 45 WNW ANJ 40 S PLN 25 SSE HTL
DTW ...CONT... 15 ENE CLE 20 NW FKL 15 NE BFD 35 WNW ELM 35 NW SYR
...CONT... 50 NNW 3B1 20 NNE HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DMN 25 NNW ALM
40 SE LVS 30 NE TCC 25 SE CVS 25 NW HOB 20 E GDP 55 SW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPR MS
VLY...MIDWEST...AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...UPR MS VLY TO WRN GREAT LAKES...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ND SFC LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND INTO SCNTRL CANADA THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE SYSTEM BEGINS TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG MASS TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF
SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS MN AND WI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF ONGOING SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
NEAR FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT ACROSS CNTRL MN AT THIS TIME. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING SUSTAINED BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...STORMS APPEAR TO
BE IN THE PROCESS OF OUTRUNNING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS RECOVERY AND
STABLE ELY FLOW ORIGINATING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SPREADING ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD REGION SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO MOSTLY HAIL AS
STORMS SPREAD EAST ACROSS NERN MN AND NRN WI.

FARTHER SOUTH...A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SRN MN. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THESE CELLS HAVE STRUGGLED TO PERSIST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO A STRONG CAP...NEW ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO
BE TAKING HOLD ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA ATTM. AIR MASS AND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...IA/KS/MO...
A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS SWWD FROM WCNTRL IA
ACROSS SERN NEB...AND INTO CNTRL KS. THIS CONVECTION INITIATED AS
FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREAD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AND HOT AIR MASS OVER
THESE AREAS. WITH FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLING ACROSS THE REGION...AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING ON THE SRN EDGE OF MID LEVEL
WIND MAX...ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONG
INSTABILITY IN A MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRENGTHENING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVELY-
INDUCED COLD POOL...FROM KS NEWD...COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF WIDESPREAD
STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PROCESS...AN MCS MAY
SPREAD EAST INTO NWRN MO LATER TONIGHT WITH A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
THREAT CONTINUING.

..CARBIN.. 06/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.