[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291959
SWODY1
SPC AC 291957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
AXN 20 S BRD 35 WSW CWA 25 NW MSN 25 ESE DBQ 30 SE FOD 30 NNE SUX
FSD ATY 55 N ATY 50 NW AXN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100
ENE CMX 50 NE ESC 40 ENE MKE 15 S DAY 35 NNE SDF 15 NNE BMI 10 W ICT
10 S DDC 35 NNE GCK 55 N RSL 10 NE LNK 40 E MBG 20 NE JMS 70 NE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD 25 SW NIR
35 N PSX 15 NNE POE 25 SE PBF 20 NNE POF 20 NNW TBN 25 WNW BVO 10
NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP ...CONT... 35 E DUG 55 NW TCS 50 NNE
4CR 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 45 NE GJT 50 NW CAG 15 SSE RIW 30 W COD 20
SE BTM 10 NW S80 10 WSW PUW 30 W GEG 15 NNW EAT 20 N OLM 25 NW BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN SD...THE SRN
HALF OF MN...WRN WI...AND NRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SWD INTO IN / IL
/ NRN MO / KS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWD TO KS / IN...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NERN SD ATTM
INVOF SURFACE LOW / COLD FRONT.  MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT / ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING.  

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD
INTO MN / WRN WI / IA...ALONG AND JUST N OF 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK.  EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS
AREA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES.  THREAT FOR
TORNADOES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / ALONG AND
N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHICH NOW LIES FROM W CENTRAL MN SEWD
ACROSS WRN WI.

OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME AS FORCING
ALONG COLD FRONT INCREASES.  THIS WOULD ALLOW AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FURTHER S INTO KS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
COLD FRONT...AND THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. 
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND THUS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS / HAIL.

MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ALONG SEWD EXTENSION OF WARM
FRONT INTO NRN IL / IN.  THOUGH SHEAR WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH SEWD
EXTENT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH MID EVENING.

...THE NORTHEAST...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND HAS
DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. 
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION. 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF ERN NY / SRN
VT / SRN NY / WRN MA...AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  DESPITE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS.. 06/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.