[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291647
SWODY1
SPC AC 291645

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
AXN 30 SSE BRD 65 NW EAU 35 NNW VOK 15 E LNR DBQ CID 40 SSW FOD 25 N
SUX BKX 55 NNE ATY 15 NNW AXN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
CMX IMT MTW 10 N CGX IND 40 SSW HUF 30 SE BRL ICT 15 WSW DDC 40 NE
GCK 55 N RSL 10 NE LNK 40 E MBG 20 NE JMS 70 NE DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
RUT 20 N LCI 10 NE PSM 15 SE BOS 20 NNE EWB BDR 10 NW POU ALB 25 NW
RUT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GLS 45 SE LFK
35 ESE FSM 45 SSW JLN 20 SE END 10 NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP
...CONT... 35 E DUG 55 NW TCS 50 NNE 4CR 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 45 NE
GJT 50 NW CAG 15 SSE RIW 30 W COD 25 ENE BTM 10 NW S80 10 WSW PUW 30
W GEG 15 NNW EAT 20 N OLM 25 NW BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN
SD...NRN IA...CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
SWD INTO KS AND NRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION DURING THE PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN SD...IS FORECAST TO ALSO
DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NNEWD INTO EXTREME SERN MANITOBA BY 30/12Z.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO SWRN KS BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN SD...SRN/CENTRAL MN...NRN IA AND WRN WI.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION WERE MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NEWD...DECREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS ND AND NRN MN.
HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS WITH
SEVERE HAIL.

HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN MN/NWRN IA.
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...EXPECT INTENSE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AND MOVE EWD TO
THE MN/SD BORDER AROUND 21Z. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR
A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR LINE AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
MN/NRN IA AND INTO WI OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SD LOW SEWD ACROSS SRN MN/WI.
ALTHOUGH REMNANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE AREA...SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME HEATING AND AIDED IN THE
AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODELS INDICATE THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN. GIVEN A WEAKER
CAP...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT
SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WARM FRONT
FROM EAST CENTRAL MN SEWD INTO WRN WI. LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

...ERN NEB/KS/NWRN MO...
MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF JET SPREADS INTO KS. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LIFT ACROSS KS.  STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. THREAT WILL PERSIST
MAINLY UNTIL MID EVENING AS UPDRAFTS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
ELEVATED.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS NY. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE MARGINALLY WEAK SHEAR...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

..IMY/TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.