[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291245
SWODY1
SPC AC 291243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FAR BJI
45 WSW DLH EAU VOK DBQ CID 45 SSW FOD SUX BKX 55 NE ABR FAR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
CMX IMT MTW 10 NNE CGX 10 NNE PIA 45 SSE IRK OJC HUT 10 SE DDC 45 N
DDC 55 N RSL LNK YKN ABR 55 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 45 NW TCS 30
NNE 4CR 50 SW CAO 45 SW PUB 10 NW GJT 40 E VEL 45 WNW RWL 30 SSW COD
10 SE BZN 15 SE 3DU 20 NNW S80 40 NW 4OM ...CONT... 10 SW GLS 45 SE
LFK 35 ESE FSM 45 SSW JLN 20 SE END 10 NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN ND/SD...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL KS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS TROUGH WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS...MN...IA...AND WI.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...SOUTHWEST MN...AND WESTERN IA.  THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS.  CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS MN.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
MORNING ACTIVITY...ALLOWING AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG
BY MID AFTERNOON.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INTENSE CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER.
 STORMS IN THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH PARAMETERS
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG FRONT INTO NORTHWEST IA WHERE A
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP MAY INHIBIT INITIATION.  ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MN DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO
A FAST-MOVING MCS BY LATE EVENING AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IA AND WI.
 THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS.

...EASTERN ND...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL ND BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN.  AIR MASS OVER EASTERN ND WILL
BE LESS UNSTABLE THAN FARTHER SOUTH.  HOWEVER...POCKET OF COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  BACKED
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER VORT MAX MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN THIS AREA...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.  STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

...ERN NEB/KS/MO...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO
CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  LACK OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER.  THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND NY TODAY.  AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE QUITE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS REGION...AND
EVEN INTO PARTS OF PA AND NORTHERN VA. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY OF STORMS.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGEST CELLS.

..HART/GUYER.. 06/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.