[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290615
SWODY1
SPC AC 290614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
AXN 45 SSW HIB 45 W IWD 20 NNE RHI 15 WNW OSH 20 SSW MSN 35 SE DBQ
35 W CID 25 SSW FOD 30 SE SPW 25 NW MKT 35 NNE AXN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
ANJ 20 W TVC 45 SE MKE 15 NNW CMI 25 NNW STL 50 SSE OJC 40 E ICT 45
WSW P28 20 NNE LBL 35 SW HLC 20 NNE EAR 50 NNE BUB 35 E PIR 55 ENE
MBG 35 ESE DVL 60 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GLS 45 SE LFK
35 ESE FSM 45 SSW JLN 25 ESE END 20 N CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP
...CONT... 35 E DUG 45 NW TCS 30 NNE 4CR 50 SW CAO 45 SW PUB 10 NW
GJT 40 E VEL 20 WNW RWL 25 N RIW 25 NE BZN 25 W HLN 20 ENE PUW 40 NW
4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MN INTO WRN/CENTRAL WI AND NERN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AND SWWD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY SUGGESTS THE THREAT
FOR A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO /POTENTIAL DERECHO/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF A NRN STREAM
TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A SECOND
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER CO...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS ERN ND INTO FAR NWRN MN...INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS PER 90-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS.  A SECOND
SURFACE LOW WITH THE CO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
NRN NEB TO SRN MN BY THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT CONNECTING THESE
SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION MOVES SWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

...ERN DAKOTAS TO WRN GREAT LAKES AND SWWD TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING OF A 40-45
KT SLY LLJ THIS MORNING...AND THEN FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO 50 KT
ACROSS IA INTO MN THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH A 60 KT
SWLY MID LEVEL JET SPREADING FROM NEB/SD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS
ND...WITH A SECOND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX POTENTIALLY ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF SD.  DESPITE SOME CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
ACTIVITY...SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MN/WI TO
AID IN WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN SD EWD TO
CENTRAL/SRN MN AND MUCH OF WI COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG.

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF A TRIPLE POINT OVER SERN ND/NERN SD AND ESEWD ALONG THE
WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN AND WRN WI.  DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY TO CENTRAL KS REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS EWD
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE MCS
ACROSS ERN MN/NERN IA AND WI.  GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS /65-70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP 40-45 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS/ SPREADING ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DERECHO.  THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY REACH ERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MI AND LAKE MI/FAR WRN LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY.

FARTHER S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE HIGH LCLS...AND GENERALLY BE DIURNAL.  HOWEVER...A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN MO SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND SRN NEB TONIGHT.

...NEW ENGLAND TO OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING EWD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALONG A COLD FRONT SPREADING SWD
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
SWWD OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.  SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /20-25 KT/ FROM NY TO NEW ENGLAND WITH 
A TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS QUEBEC MAY RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 06/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.