[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290106
SWODY1
SPC AC 290104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
Y22 10 NE Y22 55 NE ABR 15 ESE ATY 30 ESE YKN 30 S YKN 45 NNE BUB 25
N MHN 25 E PHP 55 N PHP 40 SSW Y22 20 SW Y22.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
DVL 35 N FAR 50 ENE STC 30 WSW RST 35 W ALO 20 NE OMA 25 SSW OLU 10
E HSI 40 ESE MCK 30 NW GLD 35 SW COS 30 WSW ASE 50 WSW CAG 45 WSW
RWL 25 SE CPR 35 N CDR 50 NW RAP 30 WNW SHR 50 N BIL 55 NE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 50 WSW MLU
30 E LIT 15 WSW HRO 35 W JLN 20 SW ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE
CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 45 SW DMN 40 NNE GUP 35 NNW U17 25 NNE ELY
25 NE OWY S80 85 WNW FCA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN
SD...SRN ND AND NRN-NERN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWWD INTO
CO/SRN WY...

...MUCH OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
WV IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
SECOND TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN UT/CO.  STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THESE TWO
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS APPROACH THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM WY/CO EWD TOWARD MN
BY LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN TWO
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JETS /1.) ONE SELY LLJ UP TO 40 KT EXTENDING
FROM ERN SD TO CENTRAL ND AND 2.) A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO
ERN NEB/WRN IA LATE TONIGHT/.

THESE INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND STRONG UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS THE
UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO TWO OR MORE MCS/S...1. FROM ERN MT INTO ND
AND 2. ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN SD AND NRN NEB...WITH THIS LATTER
ONE POTENTIALLY REACHING SRN MN/NRN IA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  STRONGEST
INSTABILITY /MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG/ TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS SD/NEB EWD TO SRN MN/IA...WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER N...
INSTABILITY MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE...BUT INCREASING LLJ OVER THE
DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVERNIGHT INTO
ND.

...WY/CO...
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
STRONGER FORCING SPREADS ENEWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z.

..PETERS.. 06/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.