[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 282023
SWODY1
SPC AC 282022

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
ABR BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB ANW 40 WNW VTN 4BQ 55 WNW MLS 40 SSW GGW 20
SE OLF 10 ESE DIK 60 ENE ABR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N
DVL 40 NW EAU 35 W ALO 35 NE OMA 10 N OLU 25 N IML 25 NNW LIC 35 N
4SL 30 W GUP 40 NW GCN 30 NW BCE 40 SSE SLC 20 W BPI 25 SSE LND 40
SW DGW 35 ENE CPR 50 W SHR 35 NNW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MFE 10 NNW CRP
50 NNW BPT 10 NNE SHV 45 WSW JLN 20 W ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25
ENE CNM 70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 15 W SVC 35 S PRC 35 NW IGM
30 NE TPH 45 ENE U31 30 WSW BAM 45 NNW WMC 50 S BKE 10 SE ALW 30 NNW
63S.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO SRN ND...MUCH
OF SD...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

CORRECTED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC TO REMOVE EXTRANEOUS SLIGHT
RISK LABEL

...ERN MT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NEWD INTO / DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF S
CENTRAL AND ERN MT ATTM...NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING NW-SE FROM N
CENTRAL MT ACROSS SWRN SD INTO NERN NEB.  SELY FLOW ALONG / N OF
THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD INTO ERN MT...AND IS
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VEERING.  ALONG WITH THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD...EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG / N OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO WRN SD WITH TIME. 
STORMS SHOULD BECOME PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING --
POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS -- AS
LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES.  ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL / A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL AS
STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

...ERN HALF OF UT / NRN AZ / NM NEWD INTO SRN WY / CO / WRN KS...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS UT / NRN AZ AHEAD OF
UPPER VORT MAX NOW MOVING ACROSS NWRN AZ / SRN NV / SWRN UT. 
LIMITED / HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH
COMBINED WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY / DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINAL HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN NM / CO /
SRN WY THROUGH THE EVENING.

FURTHER SE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND INTO SERN CO / WRN KS...STORMS
ARE FURTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH VORT
MAX.  NONETHELESS...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL HIGH-BASED
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BENEATH A COUPLE OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.  

...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM LOWER MI / ERN IL EWD
ACROSS OH / WV / PA TO THE DELMARVA REGION.  STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI
ARE OCCURRING ALONG / AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER OH.


WHILE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER / MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS
THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK AREAWIDE.  THOUGH
THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL / WIND GUSTS WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER
/ PULSE-TYPE STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A DECREASE IN OVERALL
CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 06/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.