[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281240
SWODY1
SPC AC 281238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DIK ABR
ATY BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB VTN 4BQ MLS GDV DIK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
OSC MKG 35 NNW CGX PIA IRK FNB GRI BBW 15 WNW IML 30 S AKO DEN CYS
45 S GCC SHR BIL 30 NW HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL FAR IWD MQT 10 S
ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 35 WNW BPT
15 SE SHV 35 N TXK 40 W JLN 30 S RSL 35 NNW LBL 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM
70 WNW MRF ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 20 ESE GBN 25 S BLH 35 N TRM 40 NW
DAG 10 W BIH 55 SSE NFL 25 SE BAM 25 W OWY 45 NNW BOI 55 WSW MSO 80
NW FCA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF SD...ND...MT...AND NEB....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL MT...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
EMERGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.  THIS SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF
MT/ND/SD/NEB TODAY.

...SERN MT/SWRN ND/MUCH OF SD...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
ID.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
PARTS OF WY.  THIS RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A RATHER STRONG CAP AND A SUPPRESSION OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE AIR MASS OVER
THIS REGION TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS
NEB...WHICH HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THIS AREA.  POCKETS OF STRONG
HEATING AND RETURN OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO ELIMINATE THE CAP BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MT AND EASTERN WY. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...QUICKLY
BECOMING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE
AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING/.  PARAMETERS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS BY LATE EVENING AND
RACE ACROSS SD...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

...WRN NEB INTO NERN CO...
FULL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...LEADING TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL CO/SOUTHEAST WY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.  MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW INVERTED-V
PROFILES...PROMOTING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  AS
STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING...GREATER INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

...MN/IA/WI/MI...
MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS
CENTRAL WI INTO LOWER MI TODAY.  OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF FRONT OVER PARTS OF IA/WI.  HOWEVER...THIS
AREA SHOULD DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON TO MODERATE LEVELS.  WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND OTHER WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COMBINATION OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING
AS DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.

...OH VALLEY...
REMNANTS OF WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER IND THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH
VALLEY.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND POCKET OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IS NOT WARRANTED TODAY.

...GREAT BASIN...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  DESPITE DRY LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS...UVVS AHEAD OF VARIOUS UPPER SYSTEMS AND MUCAPE VALUES
UP TO 500 J/KG MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...COUPLED WITH LARGE DCAPE
VALUES...WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/GUYER.. 06/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.