[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281543
SWODY1
SPC AC 281541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DIK ABR
ATY BKX YKN 60 NNE BUB VTN 4BQ MLS GDV DIK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
OSC MKG 35 NNW CGX PIA IRK FNB GRI 20 W MCK 35 WNW GUP 15 NE GCN 20
N BCE 55 N PUC 30 NNW CYS 35 N DGW 35 SE BIL 30 NW HVR ...CONT... 70
NNE DVL FAR IWD MQT 10 S ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 20 ESE GBN
25 S BLH 35 N TRM 40 NW DAG 10 W BIH 50 SE NFL 15 WSW BAM 65 W OWY
50 S BKE 15 WNW ALW 50 NW 4OM ...CONT... 10 S MFE 10 NNW CRP 50 NNW
BPT 10 NNE SHV 45 WSW JLN 20 W ICT 45 NNW GAG 15 NW AMA 25 ENE CNM
70 WNW MRF.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF SD...ND...MT AND NEB......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION......

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER NWRN U.S. PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN
MOVING EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UPPER LOW OFF SRN CA MONDAY IS
NOW OPENING UP AND ACCELERATING NEWD AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
FEATURE FOR SUMMER.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MAJOR S/WV TROUGH
ACROSS PAC NW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT.  A 60-70KT
500MB WIND MAX WITH SRN S/WV TRACKS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS PHASE TONIGHT PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF
ASCENT SPREADING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT FROM SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO TRAILS SWWD
THRU UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS SRN MN THEN WWD ACROSS SD.  PLAINS
PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL AND SHIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN EASTERN WY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING TROUGH.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM NRN IL TO NRN MO
AND KS WILL MIX OUT ALLOWING THE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CENTRAL
U.S. TO SPREAD N AND NW INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.

...SERN MT/SWRN ND AND MUCH OF SD...
SCENARIO FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE STILL REASONABLE THIS
AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  S/WV RIDGING MOVING INTO HIGH
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A CAP ON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NWWD
ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS AS FAR AS ERN MT. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE TO E AND NE  OF DEVELOPING WY LOW BY THE TIME
STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM INITIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY
MOVE EWD INTO THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND COMBINATION OF THE BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES...SUPERCELLS ALONG
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.  UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS
CONTINUE TO FEED OFF 30-40KT LLJ AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. AN
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE RISK IS LIKELY IN THIS PHASE OF THE SEVERE
EPISODE.

...SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES...
THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NEWD TO CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING HAS
RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AM
ACROSS SRN UT/NWRN AZ. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY...A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON GPS IPW
AND MANIFESTED IN CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SUPPORTS A GREATER
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS UT/AZ.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM
50-60KT COUPLED WITH THE STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM HIGH
BASED STORMS WILL PRODUCE  SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.  AREA AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

...WRN NEB INTO NERN CO...
STRONG HEATING TO LEAD TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY . SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO/SERN WY BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW INVERTED-V
PROFILES...PROMOTING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

...MN/IA/WI/MI...
PRIMARY FRONT WILL LIE FROM SRN MN EWD ACROSS LWR MI TODAY. 
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF FRONT.
HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AIRMASS FOR 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VICINITY FRONT AND ANY REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN WARM SECTOR.  WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG AND  20
KT OR LESS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PRIMARILY PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY.

...OH VALLEY...
REMNANTS OF WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING NEWD INTO SWRN OH ATTM.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND POCKET OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  STORMS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IS NOT WARRANTED.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.