[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280604
SWODY1
SPC AC 280602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE
BIS 50 NNE ABR 25 NNE ATY FSD 20 E YKN 25 SSW VTN 35 WNW VTN 40 SSW
REJ 40 NW REJ 35 SSW DIK 55 ESE BIS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE
DVL 55 ESE FAR 40 WNW IWD 25 SSE MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... 10 E OSC
MKG 30 E RFD 20 S MMO 20 NE SPI 15 ESE UIN 20 W IRK 25 NNE STJ 25 NE
BIE GRI 20 WNW BBW 15 SSW CDR 45 NE DGW 10 NNW SHR 25 N BIL 30 NW
HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 35 WNW BPT
15 SE SHV 35 N TXK 50 ENE CNU 20 SW RSL 45 W GCK 45 ESE TCC 20 N CNM
65 SE ELP ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 20 ESE GBN 30 SSE BLH 10 SSW TRM 30
NE EDW 40 SSW BIH 70 NNW BIH 35 ESE NFL 30 SSE BAM 25 W OWY 45 NNW
BOI 55 WSW MSO 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 35 NNW EPM 30 WSW AUG 15 SSW LCI
15 W ORH 40 SSW GON.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF SD...FAR SRN ND AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MS VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...WILL TRACK EWD TODAY REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  STRONG HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AFTER 29/00Z. BAND OF
40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE BASE OF THE NWRN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SERN CANADA.  A FEW SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS AND MCV/S WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.

CLOSED UPPER LOW...NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN CA PER WV IMAGERY...
WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS
REGION TODAY.  IN THE EAST...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE PRIMARY WLY FLOW ALOFT AND
MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTEND FROM NRN
LOWER MI TO CENTRAL IA BY 29/00Z.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NWWD FROM NEB TO MT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NWD TODAY AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ERN WY/ WRN SD.

...NRN PLAINS TO WRN IA/SRN MN...
SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD
ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SD.  THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM ERN MT SEWD TO CENTRAL SD TO NERN NEB/WRN IA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN SD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND
MUCH OF MT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NRN PLAINS TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MOISTENING AIR
MASS AND COMBINE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG/ FROM ERN MT TO SWRN MN/NWRN
IA/NERN NEB.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL MT...AND THEN SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SWRN ND AND SD
TO NERN NEB/WRN IA.  STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS TO 50 KT
ATOP SSELY 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL SD BY LATE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.  STRONGEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
UP TO 4000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.  BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SD SUGGEST AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

30-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WIND FIELDS FOR UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S MOVING ENEWD OVER THE DAKOTAS. 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH THESE MCS/S
OVERNIGHT.

A SECOND LLJ STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND NOSING INTO WRN/NRN IA
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS ALSO MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND
NRN IA.

...NRN LOWER MI WWD TO WI/ERN MN...
COLD FRONT AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM ONGOING MCS ACROSS
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
FOCI FOR CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 
AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 20-30 KT. THUS...MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE GREATEST THREATS.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...ERN IA/NRN-CENTRAL IL...
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN NEB INTO IA/NRN MO ASSOCIATED WITH WAA
ALONG THE NOSE OF A SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF THE LLJ. THE DOWNSTREAM AIR
MASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION ACROSS SERN IA/NRN MO WHERE SFC-6 KM SHEAR MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS.  STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

...OH VALLEY REGION...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-8 TO -10 C AT 500 MB/ AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION. WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

...UT TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...
ALTHOUGH THE CA UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD UT AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY...50 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS GENERALLY
WEAK INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
OF ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 06/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.