[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280104
SWODY1
SPC AC 280102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ
MBL MKE BRL P35 35 S FNB 55 N RSL 30 ESE IML 40 SW IML 20 SE AKO 45
ESE CYS 50 E DGW 10 SSW SHR 20 NNE WEY 3DU 55 NNW FCA 30 NNW HVR 30
NW Y22 35 NNE 9V9 25 S RWF 15 W HIB 75 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR
30 WNW LFK 20 NNW MLC 20 SSE CNU 45 ENE DDC 25 NNE AMA 15 NNW MAF 40
SW P07 ...CONT... 15 S ELP 30 W ALM 20 NW 4CR 15 SE TAD 20 SW GLD 20
SSW AKO 30 E FCL 45 NNE LAR 10 E RIW 50 E MLD 90 WNW OWY 35 E BNO 45
ENE S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 25 W BIS 35 N HON 30 NW RWF
20 E INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN
GREAT LAKES SWWD TO NEB AND NWWD TO MT...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO IA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN
PLAINS WITH A 40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH A 30 KT SSWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD TOWARD LAKE MI WILL
MAINTAIN WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL/NWRN WI.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS APPARENT
DEVELOPING BOW ECHO SUGGESTS THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY ENEWD ACROSS WI AND THE NRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI.

FARTHER S ACROSS IA...WELL DEFINED MCS WITH SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY NON-SEVERE DUE
TO WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY GIVEN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
SLY LLJ ACROSS KS NOSING INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO MCS/S ACROSS NEB INTO WRN IA AND
POTENTIALLY SRN SD.  THESE MCS/S MAY EVOLVE FROM ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SWRN SD/NWRN NEB
BORDER AND THE OTHER MOVING NNEWD OVER NRN KS. A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...WITH THE FORECAST FOR PERSISTENT
EWD MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/N OF THIS
BOUNDARY.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
OVERNIGHT MCS/S.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRACKS NEWD FROM THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING SELY LLJ FROM ERN-NORTH CENTRAL MT WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... MAINTAINING AT LEAST
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/ DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MT.  POTENTIAL
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ERN MT/SWRN ND
OVERNIGHT...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 06/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.