[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 272009
SWODY1
SPC AC 272007

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN
MBL MKE BRL P35 FNB HSI LBF 25 ESE BFF 10 SSE SHR 20 NNE WEY 3DU 50
NNW FCA 65 ENE CTB 65 SSW GGW 60 WSW DIK 10 WNW ATY 25 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR
30 WNW LFK 20 NNW MLC 20 SSE CNU 40 WSW HUT 50 N CDS 20 ENE MAF 15
SSE P07 ...CONT... 15 S ELP 35 ENE DMN 35 WNW SVC 45 ESE SOW 45 SSW
GNT 20 NW 4CR 15 SE TAD 20 SW GLD 45 S DGW 10 E RIW 50 E MLD 90 WNW
OWY 35 E BNO 35 WSW S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNE ISN 20 SSW MOT
45 SSW DVL 15 SW GFK 45 W RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT SEWD INTO THE NRN /
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...UPPER MS / MID MO VALLEYS WNWWD INTO MT...
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NRN MN ATTM...WITH STORMS ALSO DEVELOPING FURTHER S INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY REGION. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MEAN-LAYER CAPE 2000 TO 3000
J/KG/ IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  STRONGEST
WIND FIELD -- AND THUS GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- APPEARS
TO EXIST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF MN INTO NWRN WI.  WEAKER -- BUT
STILL SUFFICIENT -- SHEAR FURTHER S SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL WITH
WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON / EVENING.

MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO MT / ERN WY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH.  WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS...EXPECT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL TO INCREASE
WITH TIME.  OVERNIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP / MOVE EWD ACROSS SD / NEB AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.

...MID MS / LOWER OH / TN VALLEYS...
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION DUE TO
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER POCKET OF MID-LEVEL AIR
INVOF UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WRN TN ATTM.  THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INVOF THIS FEATURE...AND WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. 
ADDITIONALLY...MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM PULSE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MARGINAL / HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED INVOF LEE TROUGH
ACROSS ERN NM ATTM.  UPSLOPE / SELY FLOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE
TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX INTO SERN NM HAS SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...GUSTY / DRY
MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG
WITH MARGINAL HAIL.

...NEW ENGLAND...
MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...WITH REGION OF 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO VT / WRN NH.  THOUGH SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK SUGGESTING LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION...A COUPLE STRONGER
/ PULSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

..GOSS.. 06/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.