[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271617
SWODY1
SPC AC 271615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN
MBL MKE BRL P35 FNB HSI LBF BFF SHR 25 N WEY 3DU 50 NNW FCA 60 ENE
CTB HVR 40 NNW MLS Y22 ABR BJI INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 35 ENE DMN
35 WNW SVC 45 ESE SOW 45 SSW GNT 20 NW 4CR 45 WSW CAO 20 ESE LAA 20
SW GLD 45 S DGW 20 NW CPR 10 E RIW 50 E MLD 90 WNW OWY 35 E BNO 35
WSW S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNE ISN 20 SSW MOT 45 SSW DVL 15 SW
GFK 45 W RRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR 25 W LFK 15 N UMN 10 NW
CNU 50 WSW P28 55 N CDS 20 ENE MAF 15 SSE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE PAC NW WITH A SWLY FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SUNDAYS S/WV TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE PLAINS CONVECTION
CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.  RIDGE BUILDS INTO SRN
ROCKIES NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF BOTH THE S/WV IMPULSE MOVING THRU PAC
NW AND UPPER LOW IN SRN BRANCH APPROACHING CENTRAL CA COAST TONIGHT.


WHILE A WARM UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ERN U.S...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NWD THRU TN VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. ALSO A WARM
CORE LOW DELMARVA ALSO MOVES SLOWLY N INTO SRN NY BY TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE A LOW CURRENTLY SWRN ONTARIO IS ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING S/WV  AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EWD EXTENDING BY THIS EVENING FROM
WRN LS SWWD INTO ERN NEB. STRONG 40KT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY AHEAD
OF FRONT INTO WRN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS DEPART U.S. HOWEVER IN PLACE IS A VERY
MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
MORNING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD THIN AND ALLOW STRONG
HEATING.  WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F AND TEMPERATURES BY MID AFTERNOON
RANGING UPWARDS FROM THE 80S TO LOW 90S...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
DEVELOPS WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/K COMMON.

WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM
25-30KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM NERN NEB TO SRN MN WHERE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT
REMAINING ISOLATED GIVEN THE MARGINAL AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S BY EVENING...
MAINTAINING AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS IA AND WI.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS WWD ACROSS MT...
A MOIST ELY/NELY FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WWD ACROSS MT THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WITH HEATING WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG COMMON.  30-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MT AHEAD OF NW U.S. TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY...THEN MOVING INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHERE MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW LCLS.

...TN VALLEY...
A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING NWD THRU TN VALLEY.  WITH AFTERNOON HEATING A
FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOON AFTER SUNSET.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO SRN ROCKIES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
ON WRN EDGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WRN KS TO
SWRN TX.  DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES INCREASE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE W WITH UP TO 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING VICINITY LEE SURFACE TROUGH.  BY MID
AFTERNOON THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN KS SSWWD TO VICINITY
SERN NM/TX BORDER.

..NEW ENGLAND...

REF MCD 1498

AGAIN TODAY A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE  NERN U.S. AND HAS SPREAD A LITTLE NWD INTO
NRN VT/NH.  UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THE SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT PULSE
SEVERE IS POSSIBLY GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.