[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271208
SWODY1
SPC AC 271207

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN
MBL MKE BRL P35 FNB HSI LBF BFF SHR 25 N WEY 3DU 50 NNW FCA 60 ENE
CTB HVR 40 NNW MLS Y22 ABR BJI INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 30 SSE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ISN 35 WNW P24
35 WSW DVL 10 N DVL 80 NE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 15 S ALM 20
SSW 4CR 25 S TCC 40 NE CAO 40 N LAA 35 WSW AKO 10 SW FCL 30 SSW LAR
20 WNW LAR 35 N RWL 35 SW LND 25 W MLD 60 NE 4LW 10 NNW 4LW 40 NNE
LMT 50 W PDT 20 NNE EPH 65 WNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 W NIR
20 SSW CLL 40 W MKO 40 ESE ICT 30 SE RSL 30 WNW CDS 20 ESE INK 30 SW
P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT/WY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...WI/MI...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN STATES TODAY...WITH
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE FIRST FEATURE IS
WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN NEB.  THIS VORT MAX
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MN/WI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WI...WITH DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.  A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A
THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

...MN/SD/IA/NEB...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN/EASTERN SD BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON DEVELOPING A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND A
RELATIVELY WEAK CAP.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MN/SD.  RELATIVELY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN THIS REGION WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL
SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. 
OTHER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA DURING THE EARLY EVENING. 
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
 CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY LATE
EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA.

...MT/WY...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY FROM
WESTERN SD ACROSS SOUTHERN MT. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...ID/ORE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ORE AND ID
TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ORE/CENTRAL ID.  HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS IN
THIS REGION.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO LACK OF
STRONG INSTABILITY.

...MID MS AND TN VALLEY...
WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AREA
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES
FROM MO/AR ACROSS KY/TN.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER
MULTICELL STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/JEWELL.. 06/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.