[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270613
SWODY1
SPC AC 270612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
MQT 30 NNE VOK 40 W JVL 35 SSE MLI 25 SSW UIN 25 NNE SZL 25 S TOP 25
N MCK BFF 50 NNW DGW COD 25 S BZN 30 ESE 3DU 60 NE MSO 40 SSW CTB 25
WSW HVR 35 NNW MLS 45 WNW PIR 50 WNW HON 65 ENE ABR 20 NNE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 45 W NIR
40 ESE AUS 40 W MKO 40 ESE ICT 30 SE RSL 30 WNW CDS 20 ESE INK MRF
60 SW MRF ...CONT... 55 SE ELP 15 S ALM 20 SSW 4CR 25 S TCC 40 NE
CAO 40 N LAA 35 WSW AKO 10 SW FCL 30 SSW LAR 20 WNW LAR 35 N RWL 35
SW LND 25 W MLD 55 NE 4LW 55 SSE RDM 45 W PDT 10 SW EPH 60 NW 4OM
...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 40 W MOT 55 ENE MOT 35 N DVL 65 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 30 SSE AUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD
TO PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NWWD TO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PAC NW TOWARD THE
NRN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH A BAND OF 35-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO
ONTARIO.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER WRN NEB...IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD REACHING
THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z.  A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER
THE ERN GREAT BASIN...WILL TRACK EWD REACHING SD/NEB BY 00Z AND THEN
INTO SRN MN/IA TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
NRN MN SWWD TO SERN SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB...AND THEN NWWD TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN MT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  LEE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SWWD FROM TRIPLE POINT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEB TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...MN/WI TO PARTS OF MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AND WWD ACROSS SD/NEB...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER /POSSIBLY SEVERE/
IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ND.  THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NEWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO. A SECOND AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD/NERN NEB.

SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY SWWD TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MO VALLEY COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-4000
J/KG/ EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.  CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SD/NEB MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF WEAKER
INSTABILITY INTO PARTS OF MN...BUT AS STATED...OVERALL INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHS MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND OVER SD/NEB IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG/E OF THE COLD FRONT OVER MN/SERN SD BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN WWD ACROSS SD/NEB.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BECOME
LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR SUPERCELLS EXPECTED
ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB AND NWRN IA.  30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ
NOSING INTO NWRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.

27/00Z NAM AND 26/21Z NAMKF SUPPORT THE UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF THIS
LATTER AREA OF SUPERCELL STORMS INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND ERN NEB.  IF THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS
MORE LIKELY IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK.

...MT/NRN WY...
RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO MT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING OVER THIS
REGION WITH THE PAC NW TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500-1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.  ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NRN ROCKIES AND SEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...WRN KS TO WRN TX/SERN NM...
LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW ATOP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM WRN KS SWWD TO SERN NM AND WRN TX.  IF STORMS
DEVELOP...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
SUGGEST HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. 
THIS THREAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING
AFTER DARK WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO PRIMARY
BELT OF WESTERLIES TODAY...WITH IT TRACKING NNEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
TN VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  A MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION BY PEAK HEATING.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /AROUND -8 C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS/JEWELL.. 06/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.