[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261959
SWODY1
SPC AC 261958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HON 35
NE PHP 60 NNE RAP 30 WNW Y22 25 ESE DIK 10 SSW TVF 50 ENE BJI 40 W
DLH 35 ENE STC 30 N RWF HON.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW
CMX 35 SW IWD EAU 35 W RST 15 SW OTG 50 NNE BUB 20 E LBF 25 SE GLD
25 ENE LAA 20 E LHX 35 SSE LIC 10 NNW DGW 55 SW GCC 10 E WEY 15 SSW
BZN 45 NNE BZN 55 ESE LWT 35 SE OLF 55 NNW MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
HYA 25 W BDR 35 S MSV 25 SE BGM 35 SE UCA 10 SSW RUT 10 NE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 30 SSE SAT 45 NE
ACT 15 WSW IRK 30 SE DSM 50 W DSM 20 NE LNK 15 NW CNK 30 N GAG 20 S
LBB 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG 15 ENE FMN 30 NNW GJT 60 N PUC
45 SW DPG 25 NE U31 40 SE 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 10 SW ALW 40 NE EPH 65 ENE
BLI ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 WSW HVR 70 SE HVR 60 NNE GGW ...CONT...
60 NNW 3B1 HUL ...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 45 ENE LUK 45 NNW LEX 35 WSW
LEX 25 WNW LOZ 30 WSW BLF 30 SSW WAL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...

...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WY MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OVER CNTRL SD WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED EWD ACROSS NRN SD INTO SCNTRL MN. CONVECTION IS
ONGOING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN MN WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN NRN SD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN ND...MOST OF SD AND THE SWRN HALF OF
MN WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER ERN SD AND SE ND. THE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS.
WINDS ARE BACKED NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD HELP STORMS
REMAIN DISCRETE...ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT. A FEW TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IN
ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN FROM SW TO
NE...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY
WITH FAST MOVING CELLS. MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IF A
COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP THIS EVENING.

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MN...SRN ND AND NRN
SD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN MCS EVENTUALLY FORMING OVER SRN ND
AND TRACKING EWD INTO WRN MN OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION.

...HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
MULTICELL STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
GRADUALLY DROP OFF TOWARD LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

...NEW ENGLAND STATES/GREAT LAKES...
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM
LOWER MI ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NEW ENGLAND. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS HELPING STORMS INITIATE ACROSS
LOWER MI...NRN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY
ESEWD...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ESPECIALLY
OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR
PEAK HEATING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 06/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.