[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261614
SWODY1
SPC AC 261612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 15
SSW STC 20 ESE PIR 55 NW PHP 35 SSW DIK 30 NW JMS 50 WSW BJI BRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW
CMX IWD EAU RST FSD ANW LBF 50 WNW GCK 25 N LAA 15 ESE CYS DGW 45
NNE CPR 25 E WEY 10 N LVM 65 ENE BIL 30 SE OLF 70 NW MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
EWB 20 N GON 15 SSE POU 20 SE MSV 35 WSW ALB 20 SE GFL 20 W LCI 10
NNE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW 3B1 HUL
...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 50 ENE LUK 40 SSW LUK 20 WNW LOZ 30 WSW BLF 15
SE SBY ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 25 SW HDO 45 ENE ACT 30 E LWD 30 SE OMA
25 N GAG 20 S LBB 90 SW P07 ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 40 ESE SOW 30 WSW
GJT 45 ESE SLC 55 SSW ELY 30 NW U31 40 W WMC 40 N SVE 30 NNE LMT 30
NW BNO 40 NW BKE 45 SW GEG 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 WSW
HVR 70 SE HVR 60 NNE GGW.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF SD...ND AND WESTERN MN.....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY TROUGH REMAINS OVER WRN U.S. WITH A SWLY FLOW EXTENDING EWD
FROM ROCKIES TO UPPER GREAT LAKES.  S/W TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN W/V
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SRN WY/WRN CO WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL/NRN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ALONG B.C.
COAST TO MAINTAIN COOL TROUGHINESS OVER NWRN STATES.

SURFACE FRONT HAS SAGGED SWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN EXTENDS
WWD AS A QUASISTATIONARY FEATURE ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SD.

...DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA...
WITH APPROACH OF THE S/WV CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A SLY/SELY FLOW OF VERY WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF DAKOTAS.  A DRIER SWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD
EWD ACROSS SWRN SD/WRN NE WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
VICINITY THE E/W BOUNDARY THAT IS JUST S OF ND/SD BORDER.  THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE N DURING AFTERNOON AS SLY WINDS
INCREASE WITH THE DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW.  VERY TO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN VICINITY AND S OF BOUNDARY AND
E OF SURFACE LOW BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG.

RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR BY MID
AFTERNOON VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH
INCREASES TO 40-50 KT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREA OF BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND LOW LCLS VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARY.

ADDITIONALLY MDT SHEAR AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWD VICINITY DEVELOPING N/S DRY LINE
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW SWD INTO WRN NEB.

BY EVENING A SEVERE MCS SHOULD EVOLVE AND CONTINUE NEWD INTO MN E
FEEDING OFF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT AS
THE MCS MOVES ACROSS NRN MN.

...MT/WY...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND NLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO W OF SD SURFACE LOW
WILL  MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE SWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...NEB/CO...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH INTO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  DOWNSLOPE IMMEDIATELY E OF
FRONT RANGE WILL CONFINE THREAT TO ISOLATED SEVERE FROM HIGH BASED
STORMS...HOWEVER FURTHER E INTO HIGH PLAINS...DEEPER MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A GREATER NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO S OF E/W FRONTAL BAND ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IS QUITE HIGH WITH MLCAPES RISING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG AS SURFACE
TEMPS REACH MID 90S.  PULSE SEVERE IS LIKELY WITH PRIMARILY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICRO BURSTS THE EXPECTED THREAT. 
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY AND ALSO
VICINITY SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM THE COOL ATLANTIC
WATERS.

...WRN MT/SRN ID...
WITH A COOL/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUING UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. RELATIVE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.