[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261229
SWODY1
SPC AC 261227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 35
WSW STC HON PHP Y22 JMS FAR BRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW
CMX IWD EAU RST FSD ANW LBF GLD LIC CYS DGW 45 NNE CPR 25 E WEY 10 N
LVM 65 ENE BIL OLF 75 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW 3B1 60 WNW HUL
HUL ...CONT... 15 SSW JFK 30 NE HGR 15 ESE MGW 45 SSE PKB 20 NNW SSU
25 NE SBY ...CONT... 10 NNW BUF 20 SW UCA 35 NNW PBG ...CONT... 50
NE CTB 25 SE HVR 65 W GGW 25 N GGW 55 N OLF ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 35
WNW SVC 60 E SOW 30 ENE INW 10 NNW FLG 20 NNE GCN 15 ENE U17 45 WNW
GJT 40 SW RKS 10 NNW EVW 50 NNW BIH 45 E FAT 45 SSW TVL 20 ESE SVE
50 NNE RBL 50 SW MHS 35 SSW MFR 70 NNW BNO 15 NNE PDT 50 WNW PUW 45
ENE EPH 15 W EAT 50 W EAT 50 SSE BLI 25 NNE BLI ...CONT... 45 SSE
DRT 25 SW HDO 10 ESE AUS 35 SSE FTW 30 ENE HUT 35 NW HUT 40 ESE DDC
20 NNE GAG 40 NNE CDS 45 NNE BGS 45 SW MRF.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF SD...ND...AND WESTERN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM UT/AZ INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THAT TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN UT WILL MOVE ACROSS WY AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS
AND MN.

...ND/SD/MN...
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING MCS OVER EASTERN ND.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST SD INTO EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN MN.  THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL SD.  VERY MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG.  WEAK CAPPING SHOULD
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO AFFECT REGION.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS NEAR SURFACE LOW...AND EXPAND
EASTWARD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN MN.  STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF LOW WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.  STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING WITH AN EVOLUTION INTO
A FAST MOVING MCS.

...MT/WY...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MT AND NORTHEAST
WY TODAY...LEADING TO AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...NEB/CO...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WY. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEB/KS DURING THE
EVENING.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

...WRN MT/SRN ID...
POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IS
FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ID BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE
AIRMASS...LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. 
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

...NEW ENGLAND...
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...BUT
WEAK LOW/DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL PA INTO MAINE...WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LACK OF SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. 
THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION.

..HART/JEWELL.. 06/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.