[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260614
SWODY1
SPC AC 260613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW
CMX 60 WSW IWD 20 WSW EAU 25 SE RST 25 SW FSD 20 E ANW 15 E LBF 25
ENE GLD 30 ENE LIC 15 NE CYS 35 SE DGW 45 NNE CPR 20 E WEY 15 WNW
LVM 65 ENE BIL 45 NNW MLS 60 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 25 SW HDO
10 ESE AUS 35 SSE FTW 30 ENE HUT 35 NW HUT 40 ESE DDC 20 NNE GAG 40
NNE CDS 45 NNE BGS 45 SW MRF ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 35 WNW SVC 60 E
SOW 30 ENE INW 10 NNW FLG 30 NNW GCN 25 N U17 50 NW GJT 15 SW RKS 25
NNE EVW 30 ESE ENV 55 E U31 20 NE U31 35 WNW WMC 60 NNE SVE 50 SW
MHS 35 SSW MFR 20 N RDM 30 NNW PDT 40 SSW GEG 45 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 50
W EAT 50 SSE BLI 25 NNE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE CTB 25 SE HVR 65 W GGW
25 N GGW 55 N OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW BUF 20 SW UCA
35 NNW PBG ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 60 WNW HUL HUL ...CONT... 15 SSW
JFK 30 NE HGR 15 ESE MGW 45 SSE PKB 20 NNW SSU 25 NE SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD
TO PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE
NRN BC COAST DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL
RESULT IN THE EJECTION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM THE ERN GREAT
BASIN TO ERN MT/WY BY 27/00Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

IN THE EAST...26/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SERN STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL
TRACK W/NW TOWARD ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND THE OH VALLEY
TODAY. 

...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER FAR NWRN SD IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE EWD TOWARD ABR AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A SSWLY LLJ AS IT REDEVELOPS NWD
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN.  A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SPREADING NWD. THE SURFACE LOW...WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
EWD INTO CENTRAL ND BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS IA INTO SRN
MN/WI AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEPARATE LOW
LEVEL JETS NOSING INTO THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY ALSO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SD NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NNEWD AWAY FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOR SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ND/SD TO SRN MN. 
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ATOP A MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW.  MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SEWD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN MN.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SRN MT/WY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP NEWD
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SD SURFACE
LOW AS UVVS INCREASE OVER THIS AREA.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS FROM INITIALLY ACROSS SERN
MT/NERN WY AND THE DAKOTAS BEFORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS E AND NE.
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL THE GREATEST. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.  THIS SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

...FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SWWD TO ERN CO/NM.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DECREASING WITH SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS SUGGESTS A
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN NEB TO PARTS OF
ERN CO...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXTENDING WWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
UVVS WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO WRN
ID/SERN ORE.  MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
INDICATING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MAINLY
SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO SERN NY/NERN PA THIS AFTERNOON.  A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
HAIL LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS.

..PETERS/JEWELL.. 06/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.