[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260112
SWODY1
SPC AC 260111

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE
MOT 50 ENE BIS 35 S ABR 25 ENE BKX 25 NNW FRM 20 WNW MCW 30 NNW DSM
35 SSE OMA 30 ESE GRI 30 E MCK 30 E LAA 15 SW LHX 25 N COS 20 ENE
LAR 45 S CPR 30 NNW RWL 40 E RKS 55 WSW MTJ 35 NE BCE 40 SSW MLD TWF
10 NE OWY 45 NNW WMC 70 S BNO 30 NW BZN 15 SE GTF 65 W GGW 60 NNE
GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 25 NNW SAT
15 E TPL 40 NNE ACT 40 NE ADM 30 SW TUL 15 NNW UMN 35 NNE SGF 35 SSE
SZL 20 SE OJC 25 W EMP 20 NNW P28 30 NNW GAG 25 E AMA 40 ESE HOB 90
SSE MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 50 WNW SAD 60 SSE IGM 55 NW P38 10 NE
TPH 45 WSW TPH 55 S BIH 40 SSE FAT 50 NNE SAC 50 SSE RBL 45 ESE UKI
15 S UKI 55 SE EKA 40 E OTH 35 ENE EUG 25 W RDM 65 S RDM 45 N 4LW 15
NE BNO 40 N BKE 25 NW GEG 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 W RRT 45 ESE BJI
25 SSW IMT 30 NNW HTL OSC ...CONT... 20 SE BOS 10 NE MSV 40 E PSB 45
NNE BWG CSV 10 SE HKY 25 WNW SOP 15 SE RDU 45 NE RWI 30 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WWD TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SRN ALBERTA...WILL TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. 
BAND OF MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS NRN
HIGH PLAINS/SRN CANADA WHILE A SSELY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS FROM ERN MT/WY INTO THE DAKOTAS.  A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS MT REACHING ERN MT BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR SHR MOVES TOWARD NWRN SD.  PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN DAKOTAS ATOP NW-SE
ORIENTED AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM ERN MT/WRN ND TO NEB
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.  LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA TROUGH AND WAA INCREASING ALONG THE NOSE
OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH CAPE/EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES RESULTING IN SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT
FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA...
A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN SD SEWD TO NRN NEB AND
CENTRAL IA WILL REMAIN THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...WITH
MODERATE MUCAPES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THIS REGION REMAINS ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS...NOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PER WV
IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NEB/SD FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.  EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF
HAIL/STRONG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER NV IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY SOME AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD ERN ID/ERN UT TONIGHT.  DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.  DEEP WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER PER REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS GREATEST THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO IA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH ASCENT
AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS SHOULD
REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...WITH GREATER POTENTIAL BEING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM IA INTO PARTS OF SRN MN/ SWRN WI.  FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...REFER TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DISCUSSION FROM HPC.

FARTHER EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION DUE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS.

..PETERS.. 06/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.