[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251951
SWODY1
SPC AC 251950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE
MOT 40 E BIS 30 SSE ABR 20 ENE BKX 25 NNW FRM 15 NW MCW 35 E FOD 45
SSW FOD 30 E GRI 40 W HLC 25 ESE LAA 15 SW LHX 25 N COS 25 NW CYS 55
SSE CPR 25 N RWL 40 E RKS 30 ENE 4BL 40 SE U17 45 W PGA 60 NNE P38
10 S EKO 60 NW OWY 45 NNW BOI 25 NNE 3DU 30 N HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 25 NNW SAT
15 E TPL 40 NNE ACT 25 WSW OKC 40 S PNC 15 NNW UMN 35 NNE SGF 35 SSE
SZL 20 SE OJC 25 W EMP 20 NNW P28 30 NNW GAG 25 E AMA 40 ESE HOB 90
SSE MRF ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 70 WSW PRC 30 SSW SGU 70 SSW ELY 35 N
TPH 45 NNE BIH 55 S BIH 40 SSE FAT 50 NNE SAC 50 SSE RBL 45 ESE UKI
15 S UKI 55 SE EKA 40 E OTH 35 ENE EUG 25 W RDM 65 S RDM 45 N 4LW 15
NE BNO 40 N BKE 25 NW GEG 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 30 NNW ELO 40 NNW
IWD 25 SSW IMT 35 WSW HTL 55 N MTC ...CONT... 20 E EWB 25 S ABE 30
ESE MGW 10 SSW CRW 40 E TRI 10 SE HKY 25 WNW SOP 15 SE RDU 45 NE RWI
30 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD OVER
NRN MT. THE PLUME IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ECNTRL AND NRN MT
THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS ALONG AN AXIS
FROM WRN SD EXTENDING NNWWD INTO ERN MT AND WRN ND. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THIS AXIS RANGING FROM 1000 TO
2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS SUPERCELLS IN
ERN MT DRIFT EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN WRN SD. STORM
MOTIONS OF ABOUT 40 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0
C/KM SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS...MCS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH
OVER CA/NV WITH THE RUC SHOWING STRONG ASCENT SPREADING EWD INTO UT.
THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT
MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SRN ID WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
SEVERE STORMS. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND
SRN WY. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE WEST EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY
AXIS...THE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 06/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.