[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251609
SWODY1
SPC AC 251608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW
DVL 45 E BIS 10 WNW HON SPW DSM BIE 35 S MCK 35 NNE EHA 45 SSW LAA
COS CYS SHR 40 S BIL WEY 45 W BPI 40 E PUC 50 WSW 4HV MLF 45 NE ELY
50 SSE EKO 40 N U31 WMC 80 WNW OWY BOI 55 SSW MSO GTF 40 NE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E EWB 25 S ABE 30
ESE MGW 10 SSW CRW 40 E TRI 10 SE HKY 25 WNW SOP 15 SE RDU 45 NE RWI
30 NE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW ELO 20 SSW IMT 55 N MTC ...CONT... 65 W
COT 25 NNW SAT 15 E TPL 40 NNE ACT 20 WSW OKC 40 ESE END 15 NNE SGF
40 ESE SZL 25 ESE OJC 30 W EMP 20 NNW P28 30 NNW GAG 25 E AMA 40 ESE
HOB 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 75 S GBN 10 SSW GBN 45 WNW GBN 35 E BLH 25
SE EED 55 ENE LAS 25 SSW P38 50 WNW P38 30 ESE TPH 40 SSW TPH 55 S
BIH 45 ESE FAT 40 E SCK 35 E RBL 20 SW RBL 30 E UKI UKI 30 SE EKA 40
NE ACV 25 WSW MFR 30 NNE MFR 55 S RDM 45 ESE RDM BKE 15 ESE PUW 20
ESE GEG 25 NW GEG 40 NNE 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SRN ROCKIES
ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. TO EASTERN SEABOARD. CLOSED LOW THAT WAS
OFFSHORE CA HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND CURRENTLY TRACKING NEWD
ACROSS SRN SIERRAS INTO NV...WHILE NRN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVES EWD
FROM SRN BC INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD INTO NERN U.S. CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM VICINITY ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS SRN MI/WI THEN
WWD ACROSS SRN SD.  PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL RETURN NWD AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN LEE OF NRN ROCKIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
S/WV TROUGHS FROM THE W.

S OF FRONT A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS PREVAILS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TO THE E COAST.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
HAVE INCREASED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND AND HAIL FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN MT INTO WRN ND AS A STRENGTHENING
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MT
WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AREA.  BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH FULL HEATING... THE AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE
MUCH OF ERN MT WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 3000 J/KG OR GREATER.  AS
S/WV MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM  SRN B.C. THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
TO 40-50 KT WHICH COUPLED WITH UP TO 30KT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
CREATES VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 
WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM POTENTIAL FOR BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
DEVELOPS ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE.  STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SEVERE MCS THIS
EVENING WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN
ND.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
THE BAND OF 50-60KT 500 MB WINDS ROTATING ACROSS UT INTO SERN ID/WRN
WY AS TROUGH OVER SRN SIERRAS LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NV THIS AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES PROVIDES ENVIRONMENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...PARTICULARLY  OVER NV...HOWEVER MID LEVEL
CONVECTION ONGOING SWRN UT SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON NWD ACROSS NRN UT INTO SRN ID
AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH.  WITH THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM THE HIGH
BASED STORMS COUPLED WITH THE 40-50KT OF SHEAR...STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH MANY OF THE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO MID MS VALLEY...
WHILE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MDTLY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE FROM CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE S OF FRONTAL ZONE....THE LACK OF FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.  30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
BOTH MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FROM ERN WY/CO INTO WRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER E THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
TEMPERED BY BOTH EXISTING CLOUDINESS REDUCING SURFACE HEATING AND
THE WEAKER SHEAR.  MULTICELLULAR STORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY NEAR
PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES INCLUDING THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AREAS
WHERE HEATING CAN REDUCE CIN. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN MUCH OF THIS AREA.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.