[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251247
SWODY1
SPC AC 251246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW
DVL 45 E BIS 10 WNW HON SPW DSM BIE 35 S MCK 35 NNE EHA 45 SSW LAA
COS CYS SHR 40 S BIL WEY 45 W BPI 40 E PUC 50 WSW 4HV MLF 45 NE ELY
50 SSE EKO 40 N U31 WMC 80 WNW OWY BOI 55 SSW MSO GTF 40 NE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W COT 15 NW COT 25
N AUS 25 S FTW 40 E OKC 20 NNE BVO 45 E ICT ICT 30 WNW P28 30 E AMA
35 E CNM 55 WNW MRF ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 30 NW TUS 30 ESE PHX 60 WNW
PHX 35 SSE EED 20 SSW LAS 30 NNW LAS 30 NW P38 30 SE ELY 40 W ELY 45
N TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 NE MER 35 E SCK 15 W UKI 60 SSE EKA 20 NE ACV
EUG 25 SSE SLE 40 SE SLE 25 SE RDM 55 N BNO 15 ESE PUW 20 ESE GEG 25
NW GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 40 ESE RRT 35 ENE BJI 55 SSW IWD 40 S
IMT 30 NW TVC 20 E HTL 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSE BOS 10 SSE ABE
15 N CHO 30 SSE PSK 35 SSE TRI 30 SW HKY 35 W SOP 25 NE FAY 30 E GSB
30 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

...ERN MT/DAKOTAS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO NORTHEAST MT BY THIS
EVENING.  MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION /MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS. 
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT OVER EASTERN MT...SPREADING INTO WESTERN ND
DURING THE EVENING.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.

...NV/UT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA. 
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF NV/UT TODAY.  A DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF NV/UT AHEAD OF SYSTEM...WHERE COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
 SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.  

...ID/MT...
STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
ID/SOUTHWEST MT BY EARLY EVENING.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
AND TERRAIN SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THESE
REGIONS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...SD/WY/CO/WRN NEB/WRN KS...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WY/CO...SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB/WESTERN KS BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING.

...ERN NEB/SRN SD/WESTERN IA...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEB.  THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY TO NEAR THE SD/NEB
BORDER.  STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF FEATURE WILL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/JEWELL.. 06/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.