[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250547
SWODY1
SPC AC 250545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI
MLD 25 ESE OGD PUC 40 WSW 4HV 15 SSW MLF 60 ENE ELY 50 SSE EKO 40 N
U31 WMC 80 WNW OWY 50 SE BOI BYI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE
DVL DVL 45 WNW ABR 9V9 BBW 30 WNW HLC 35 SW GLD LIC CYS GCC 60 SW
MLS 35 NW BIL BZN HLN 35 NW GTF 40 NNW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW RRT 35 ENE BJI
DLH 25 S MQT 20 NNE TVC 30 N MBS 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSE BOS 10
SSE ABE 15 N CHO 30 SSE PSK 35 SSE TRI 30 SW HKY 35 W SOP 25 NE FAY
30 E GSB 30 NE ECG ...CONT... 75 W COT 15 NW COT 25 N AUS 25 S FTW
40 E OKC 20 NNE BVO 45 E ICT ICT 30 WNW P28 30 E AMA 35 E CNM 55 WNW
MRF ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 30 NW TUS 30 ESE PHX 60 WNW PHX 20 E EED 20
SSW LAS 30 NNW LAS 30 NW P38 30 SE ELY 40 W ELY 45 N TPH 30 NNW BIH
35 NE MER 35 E SCK 15 W UKI 60 SSE EKA 20 NE ACV EUG 25 SSE SLE 40
SE SLE 25 SE RDM 55 N BNO 15 ESE PUW 20 ESE GEG 25 NW GEG 40 NNE
4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS GREAT BASIN REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
RIDGING FROM NWRN MEX ACROSS S-CENTRAL CONUS TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
 UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG
S-CENTRAL CA COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE START OF
PERIOD AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD UT.  ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...THOUGH...AS SYSTEM BECOMES
POSITIVELY-TILTED/OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND LOSES AMPLITUDE.

MEANWHILE....SFC FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LH WSWWD ACROSS IA/NEB AND
ERN CO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD FROM QUE/ONT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER OH/INDIANA/IL...AND LIFTING
NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN PLAINS.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM SERN MT/NWRN WY AREA SFC
LOW SSEWD OVER ERN CO.

...NRN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS REGION FROM SFC LOW SWD INVOF LEE TROUGH...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  MIDLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH SUPERCELLS MORE PROBABLE FROM ERN WY/WRN NEB
NWD AND MULTICELLS PREDOMINATING FARTHER S.  DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE STEEP ACROSS ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA -- 8-9 DEG C/KM.  50S/60S
F SFC DEW POINTS AND STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
1500-2500 J/KG...SOMEWHAT GREATER OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS WHERE HIGH
DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY.

TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS WRN ND AND CENTRAL/WRN MT...IN
NRN SEMICIRCLE OF SFC CYCLONE. IN THAT REGIME...BACKED SFC FLOW
WILL BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE AND ENLARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...ENHANCING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL RELATIVE TO AREAS FATHER
S.  GIVEN THIS FACTOR AND POSSIBILITY OF LOWER LCL RESULTING FROM
SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR LARGEST
IN THIS REGION.  MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
BE OVER ND WHERE 40-50 KT NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL DEVELOP...E OF LEE-SIDE
CYCLONE.

...GREAT BASIN...
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
DAY...COINCIDING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING CINH AND
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT
LEAST MARGINAL SFC MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
ALSO MAY OCCUR.  MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-800 J/KG
MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE.  DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT
MAINTENANCE OF INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC...WITH SMALL BUT LONG-TRACK
BOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS BASIN AND RANGE COUNTRY.

...MID ATLANTIC TO MID MS VALLEY...
WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY AND STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED POCKETS OF
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. MID 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW
POINTS ARE POSSIBLE IN 100-200 NM WIDE CORRIDOR CLOSELY
CORRESPONDING TO FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND OVERCOME WEAK MIDLEVEL STABLE
LAYERS...TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. 
HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS...ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE WEAK NEAR
FRONT...LIMITING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND AREA ALSO WILL BE LOCATED S
OF IDEAL MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELDS. THEREFORE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK.  ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE FROM MS VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC ALONG YET
UNDEVELOPED...SMALL SCALE FOCI WITHIN FRONTAL BELT.  SUCH PROCESSES
COULD CONCENTRATE SEVERE POTENTIAL ENOUGH SUBREGIONALLY TO WARRANT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE. 
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE PICKING SUCH AN AREA
ATTM.

..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 06/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.