[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250118
SWODY1
SPC AC 250117

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0817 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
DTW 50 SE FWA SDF 50 SE BNA RMG AHN FLO CRE ...CONT... 20 ESE OSC 15
E MKG 10 SW RFD LWD 10 NNE RSL 20 SSW LAA 20 S LAR 50 SSE CPR 55 NNW
RWL 35 ENE DLN 15 NNE BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT 40 NNE 4BQ Y22 10
NE PHP 45 SW 9V9 10 SW YKN 30 W LSE 20 N PLN ...CONT... GLS HOU 45
NE CLL 30 SSE TYR ELD PBF POF 40 W STL 55 NNE SZL FLV 60 S LBL CVS
55 WSW ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW TUS GBN EED DAG
RBL 50 E CEC MFR BKE S80 MSO 30 NNW GTF 40 SW GGW SDY 40 WSW BIS MBG
MHE OTG FRM 45 NNE GRB ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BHB MPV MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NRN
LOWER MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE WILL REMAIN STRONG RIDGING FROM MID
ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY...ERN/CENTRAL LOW
PLAINS...TO NWRN MEX.  NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
NRN MB/ONT BORDER REGION IS FCST TO REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD JAMES BAY...WITH INCREASING
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS. 
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OFFSHORE CENTRAL CA COAST -- IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE IN
PERIOD...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HELPING TO MAINTAIN SOME
NOCTURNAL GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL IN SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN REGIONS.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SAULT REGION OF MI/ONT...SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL IA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY SWWD OVER S-CENTRAL NEB
AND E-CENTRAL CO.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI...
SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG AND BEHIND SFC FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL.  DVN/APN RAOBS AND
INTERMEDIATE RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYERS BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO GREATLY HINDER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  DEEP LAYER SPEED
SHEAR INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT ALONG FRONT...AND BUOYANCY
DECREASES.  REF SPC WWS 518/519 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
FOR NEAR-TERM SITUATION.

...SRN/ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA...
GREATEST COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EVIDENT
ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH POST-FRONTAL DEW POINTS IN 70S F AND ELY
FLOW ENLARGING 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS.  THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPES
APPROXIMATELY 3000 J/KG AND 0-3 KM SRH 250-400 J/KG N OF FRONT...
PER 00Z OAX RAOB AND NEARBY RUC SOUNDINGS IN IA AND ERN NEB. 
DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC SUPPORT IS MORE MARGINAL...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KT AND AFFECTIVE SHEARS ROUGHLY 40 KT.  STILL...THIS
PROFILE FAVORS SUPERCELLS WITH TENDENCY TOWARD HEAVY PRECIP MODE...
AND CLUSTERING/MERGERS LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL BOWS WITH
TIME.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR IS CAPPING...THOUGH FRONTAL
FORCING STILL MAY RESULT IN REMOVAL OF VERY SMALL CINH EVIDENT IN
OAX SOUNDING.  ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THIS
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING POSSIBLE BACKBUILDING FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA
ACTIVITY...MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.  TORNADO
POTENTIAL...BY CONTRAST...IS STRONGLY CONDITIONAL...MARGINAL AND
TIED LARGELY TO STORM-SCALE PROCESSES.

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EVIDENT MOVING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRN MT
SEWD ACROSS WY AND WRN NEB...TO ERN CO/NERN KS.  INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT SUPPORTS SUPERCELL MODE OVER CORRIDOR BETWEEN
SNY-BIL...WHILE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S.  REF WWS 517/520 AND ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
DIMINISH FARTHER E AND WITH TIME...AS NEAR-SFC LAYER
STABILIZES...AND INFLOW BECOMES MORE ELEVATED WITH LOWER THETAE.

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT OVER LAURENTIAN PLATEAU OF QUE MAY BE
SUSTAINED AS IT MOVES ESEWD TOWARD NRN MAINE...AND PERHAPS NRN
VT/NH...BY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION EVIDENT JUST
TO ITS S AND PROGGED TO EXTEND SEWD OVERNIGHT. DIABATICALLY COOLED
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE
GUSTS AT SFC BY THE TIME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE OVER
AREA...AFTER ABOUT 08Z.  HOWEVER...PROGS OF 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND 500-1000 J/KG
ELEVATED MUCAPE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR/BOW STRUCTURES
AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.