[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241941
SWODY1
SPC AC 241940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
APN 30 NNW MKG 40 NNW BRL LWD 45 WSW HLC 30 SE LIC 25 SSW FCL 25 S
CPR 25 SE COD 35 ENE DLN 15 NNE BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS 10
SE REJ 15 WNW PHP 9V9 30 ENE FSD 25 E MKT 60 WNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BHB 20 E MPV 10
N ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 40 SW LFK 35
SSE GGG 55 WSW MLU 25 SW 0A8 10 WSW MCN 25 SSE CAE 20 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 ESE GDP
15 SSW INK 35 NE FST 20 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW MOT 40 WSW BIS
40 N PIR 30 NW HON 50 NE BKX 25 WNW MSP 55 NNE MQT ...CONT... 40 SE
DTW 40 NE DAY 15 N SDF 30 ENE MDH 30 NE COU 35 NNW SZL 25 ENE HUT 20
ENE TCC 35 SE TCS 40 SSW DMN ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 25 S GBN 45 WNW
GBN 50 W EED 10 SSW DAG 40 SE FAT 35 N FAT RBL 35 E ACV 35 E 4BK 30
SSE RDM 25 NNE BKE 40 S S80 60 NE S80 10 SSE S06 GEG 20 SW EAT 20
SSW HQM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PLAINS...

...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN WSWLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SE NEB ENEWD ACROSS IA INTO WI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER MOST OF IA. THIS
AREA APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...A
TRANSITION TO SEVERE MULTICELLS MAY OCCUR BY EVENING DUE TO THE
VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND CONGEALING DOWNDRAFTS/MCS
FORMATION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALSO
MAY KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH A
DECREASING THREAT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY FINALLY DROPS OFF
ACROSS THE REGION.

...CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDS NWWD FROM WRN NEB ACROSS ERN WY INTO SE
MT. AS THE MTN CONVECTION MOVES GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 06/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.