[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241558
SWODY1
SPC AC 241556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC
MKG MLI LWD CNK 30 SSE HLC 40 WNW GCK LAA PUB FCL CYS DGW SHR LVM
BZN BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS REJ 35 WNW PHP 9V9 15 E MKT 30
NW ESC 55 E MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 40 SW LFK 35
SSE GGG 55 WSW MLU 25 SW 0A8 15 W MCN 40 SE AGS 35 S EWN ...CONT...
15 WSW CLE 20 SE CMH 45 WNW LOZ 25 E PAH 25 W CGI 20 NNW UIN 30 SSE
P35 25 S TCC 15 W TCS 30 SSE DMN ...CONT... 50 WNW MRF 40 ESE GDP 15
SSW INK 35 NE FST 20 S P07 ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 25 S GBN 50 WNW GBN
25 WNW IPL 40 NNE SAN 25 NE OXR 30 E MER RBL 35 E ACV 35 E 4BK 30
SSE RDM 25 NNE BKE 40 S S80 60 NE S80 10 SSE S06 GEG 20 SW EAT 20
SSW HQM ...CONT... 60 NNW MOT 40 WSW BIS 15 NE PIR 20 SE ATY 30 NE
MQT ...CONT... 20 NNW EPM 35 N AUG 20 ENE MPV 10 N ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN MT....

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SYSTEM SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN
EXTENDING WSWWD TO ALONG SRN MN/IA BORDER THEN WWD VICINITY SD/NE
BORDER.  UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA LATE TONIGHT WHILE
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS ENEWD FROM SWRN U.S. ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO
THE NERN COAST.

AHEAD OF COLD FRONT... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
SWD AS FAR AS CENTRAL NEB INTO ECENTRAL CO.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT A VERY WARM AND MOIST WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS EWD
ACROSS WI AND MI THIS AM.  OVERNIGHT SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
RATHER RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN WI ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG
POLAR JET ACROSS SRN ONTARIO.  THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON EWD FROM CURRENT WI ACTIVITY AS
STRONG HEATING WEAKENS CAP AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS.

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE DEVELOPING STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD TO MS VALLEY...

SURFACE BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN IA
WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE
STORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER THIS  AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F.  WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILES IN BOUNDARY LAYER VICINITY FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO AROUND 30KT.  MCS WILL THEN TRACK ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARIES TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT
AFTER DARK.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE FLOW N OF CURRENT BOUNDARIES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM ERN CO NWD INTO ERN WY/SERN
MT.  THE 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW MT/NRN WY DECREASES TO AROUND
20KT NERN CO.  A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
SERN MT THRU ERN WY.  GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES
UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE PRIMARY THREAT.  THE RELATIVELY  WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH
BASED STORMS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT RATHER LOW.

FURTHER S INTO CO...SHEAR IS WEAKER AND MORE MULTICELL STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF HIGH TERRAIN INTO PLAINS DURING AFTERNOON. 
STILL A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MLCAPES TO
1500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.