[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240544
SWODY1
SPC AC 240542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC
MKG MLI P35 CNK HLC GLD LIC DEN FCL CYS DGW SHR LVM BZN BTM 30 NNW
HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS REJ PHP 40 SE 9V9 OTG ESC ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 45 SE OTH 45 WNW
BKE 40 SW S80 50 SSW MSO 3DU 45 WNW GTF 25 N CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE
ISN 40 SSW Y22 25 NE PHP 25 SSE PIR BKX 50 WNW RHI MQT ...CONT... 45
NNE MTC BRL TOP 30 ESE DDC TCC 4CR 35 WNW ALM 45 SE DMN ...CONT...
75 SSW GBN 30 SW GBN 60 NW GBN 40 ENE BLH TRM 35 ESE PMD NID 45 SE
BIH TPH 60 SW U31 30 SSE TVL 25 N SAC 55 E UKI EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 35 NNW LFK
SHV MLU LUL DHN 30 NE MGR 45 SSW CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE 63S 40 SW 63S
OLM 10 W HQM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HUL 25 W 3B1 20
N MPV 10 N ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...NEB
TO NRN LOWER MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CONUS -- EXCEPT W COAST STATES AND MIDWEST --
WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM NM ENEWD TO
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ERRATICALLY OFFSHORE CENTRAL/NRN CA THROUGH PERIOD...WITH
EWD/SHOREWARD TURN POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
DESTABILIZATION/ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GEN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER
PORTIONS NRN CA AND NV...MAINLY LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. LOW
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER PORTIONS NV/UT -- IS REASONABLY PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL 00Z
ETA/NGM AND MANY 21Z SREFX MEMBERS TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO VICINITY WRN NEB/NWRN KS BY 25/00Z. SPECTRAL MODEL IS
MORE NEBULOUS WITH THIS FEATURE AND ACCORDINGLY HAS WEAKER MIDLEVEL
UVV AND PRECIP RESPONSE ALONG/N OF SFC FRONT DURING AFTERNOON.

SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NRN MB/SK
-- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD SLOWLY OVER MI/WI/IA...DECELERATING TO
QUASISTATIONARY OVER PORTIONS NEB AND NERN CO.

...CENTRAL/ERN NEB TO NRN LOWER MI...
STRONG SFC DIABATIC HEATING ALONG AND JUST N OF FRONT SHOULD OFFSET
WEAK POSTFRONTAL CAA...AND COMBINE WITH FRONTAL ASCENT...TO DEVELOP
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL NEB TO WRN IA
INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH LATE DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALMOST
ANYWHERE IN FRONTAL ZONE EWD TOWARD NRN LOWER MI.  DAMAGING GUSTS
SHOULD BE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
CLUSTER OR SMALL MCS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT TOWARD
LM.

ALTHOUGH ONLY 25-30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED DURING PROBABLE 
24/21Z-25/00Z INITIATION WINDOW...MAJORITY OF CONTRIBUTION TO
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL COME FROM ELY FLOW COMPONENT IN
BOUNDARY LAYER...N OF SFC FRONT.  THERE SHOULD BE A CORRIDOR N OF
FRONT WHERE LIFTED PARCELS ARE SFC-BASED...AND/OR EFFECTIVE LAYER
PARCELS EXTEND DOWNWARD TO SFC.  MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN THAT REGIME SUPPORT PRE-STORM
MLCAPES 2500-4000 J/KG...DECREASING WITH NWD EXTENT FROM SFC
BOUNDARY.

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS/FOOTHILLS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
POSTFRONTAL/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...FROM WRN MT TO NERN
CO.  MOST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE -- FAVORING SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS -- WILL EXTEND FROM ERN WY ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/SWRN MT.  THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL
WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  STRONG HEATING
OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN CINH DURING AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN
CONVECTION THAT SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD BEFORE ITS NOCTURNAL
DISSIPATION.  DEEP SUBCLOUD/MIXED LAYERS AND LARGE SFC DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE
TO SFC OF LARGE HAIL/WIND GENERATED ALOFT.

..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.