[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240106
SWODY1
SPC AC 240104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
IWD MSP 20 WSW OTG 55 W YKN 10 NNW HLC 35 ENE LIC 60 E CDR 55 ENE
PIR 40 E FAR 20 WNW INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 60 SSW SGU
U24 ENV EKO OWY 40 SE BOI DLN BZN MLS P24 65 NNW DVL ...CONT... OSC
20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 35 S LSE MCW SUX OLU 50 WNW CNK 45 NW GCK 50 NNW
TCC 40 WNW 4CR ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 30 NNW CEW TOI
CSG CAE GSB 35 S ECG 35 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NRN MN
AND WRN LS REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE/QUASISTATIONARY AREA OF HIGH HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CONUS.  UP TO 100 KT FLOW
OBSERVED AT 24/00Z IN NRN MT WITH NRN STREAM JET CORE...S OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER WRN NEB/NWRN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NEB.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS
NERN/S-CENTRAL SD...WRN NEB AND ERN CO.  THIS FRONT IS FCST TO CROSS
UPPERMOST MS VALLEY AND WRN LS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY
OVER CENTRAL NEB.

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
REF SPC WWS 513/515 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
DETAILS.  SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF FRONT OVER NRN MN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO MCS WITH PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN BOUNDARY WATERS
AREA AND ADJACENT NERN MN COUNTIES TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH DIABATIC SFC
COOLING WILL REDUCE  SBCAPE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW
LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES MN ARROWHEAD.  MUCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG...NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEARS INDICATE SEVERE WIND LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WITH BOW ECHOES. 
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT. 
MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...EITHER WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS OR BOOKEND MESOCIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWS.

FARTHER S ACROSS SD/NEB...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS OVER DEEPLY MIXED CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY LAYERS....INVOF SFC FRONT.  VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWD
EXTENT AND SBCINH SHOULD  STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...LIMITING DURATION
OF ORGANIZED SEVER THREAT.  REF SPC WW 514 AND ACCOMPANYING
DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
MARKEDLY WITHIN A FEW HORUS AFTER SUNSET.

..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.