[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231236
SWODY1
SPC AC 231235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
CMX 30 N RHI 30 W EAU 20 WNW MKT 25 SW MHE 35 WSW MHE 15 W 9V9 30 NE
PIR 25 SW JMS 75 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CEC 40 NW MFR 70
N LMT 60 NNE LMT 15 WNW 4LW 50 NNW SVE 40 W SVE 50 SE EKA 30 E CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GLS 50 N HOU 20
NNE LFK 35 SE SHV 35 SE MLU 20 WSW MEI 30 NNW MGM 15 SSE AHN 40 S
CLT 20 S RDU 35 N HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 60 SSW LAS
40 E TPH 30 WSW TWF 10 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MTW 30 S OSH 10 S
CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV 25 SSE MVN 20 NE ALN BRL 50 NE OMA 20 NW
LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS
EWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROMINENT LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING INCLUDE A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN MANITOBA.
BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES EXTEND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES OVER NWRN MT/ALBERTA AT 23/12Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...WITH INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT
FALLS/MID-LEVEL COOLING EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE...PARENT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE /998MB/ OVER ERN
SASKATCHEWAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SSWWD INTO
ERN MT. FRONT MARKS LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING THAT WILL
SPREAD EWD TODAY. AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY MOIST ALONG WARM FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM NWRN MN SEWD INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY.
MOISTURE POOLING/EVAPOTRANSITIVE EFFECTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AXIS OF
LOW 70S DEWPOINTS FROM ERN ND SEWD TO SERN IA. LEAD IMPULSE AND
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WITH ACTIVITY
TRACKING NEWD ACROSS FAR NRN ND. A SEPARATE NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING
SSEWD ACROSS UPPER MI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECAY ON ERN EDGE OF
INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH LATE MORNING.

...ERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

STRONG CAPPING INVERSION INITIALLY IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH NERN
EXTENTION OF 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+14 TO +15C/ ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS/MN WILL BE SHUNTED EWD IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/VERTICAL MOTION WITH APPROACHING DYNAMIC TROUGH.
SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ND AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS ERN SD
AS CAP WEAKENS FROM WEST-TO-EAST. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 5000 J/KG. LINEAR
FORCING SUGGESTS CONDITIONAL THREAT OF FAST MOVING BOW SEGMENTS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ORGANIZED SEVERE
MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LEAVES SOME
QUESTION AS TO EXTENT OF CAP EROSION THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE CLOSE
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS NERN ND EWD INTO NRN MN.
UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME.

...CENTRAL/WRN NEB INTO NERN CO/ERN WY...

STRONG SURFACE BASED HEATING/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG
DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ERN SD SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB
AND NERN CO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SW-NE ZONE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION WITH PEAK HEATING CYCLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 90S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR /MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG/ AND WEAK CINH BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. 
MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-25KT SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE CELLS OR
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ALONG SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCED LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LAKE
EVENING.

SEPARATE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES IN ERN WY AND CO FRONT RANGE. AS STORMS
TRAVERSE DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT EWD ACROSS FAR ERN WY/NERN
CO...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DCAPE VALUES
PROJECTED BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG IN NAM-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SUSTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGER CORES.

..BANACOS/EVANS.. 06/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.