[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230529
SWODY1
SPC AC 230528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW
CMX 50 SSE ELO DLH MSP FRM SPW YKN 9V9 ABR GFK 75 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CEC 40 NW MFR 70
N LMT 60 NNE LMT 15 WNW 4LW 50 NNW SVE 40 W SVE 50 SE EKA 30 E CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM DRA 40 E
TPH 30 WSW TWF 27U BTM 3HT GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC MTW 40 NNE
ALO LNK GCK DHT 40 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 50 N HOU 20 NNE
LFK 35 SE SHV JAN MEI 30 NNW MGM AHN 40 S CLT 20 S RDU 35 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MN AND ERN DAKOTAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH
COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS...WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER FL AND
ERN GULF...AND PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW FIELD OVER CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS.  PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- IS FCST TO
MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS. 
MEANWHILE...WEAKER PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD FROM UT/CO
ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER NW STATES -- IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MT/SK BETWEEN 23/06Z AND 23/12Z...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
MUCH OF MN DURING DAY-1 PERIOD.  THIS FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SEWD
OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...REACHING CENTRAL NEB AND ERN CO BY
24/12Z.

...UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST BEHIND
SFC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER SW OVER STRONGLY HEATED/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN NEB/NERN CO.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.  PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS/MN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...SUPPORTING
STRONG TO EXTREME LATE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY.  MODIFIED ETA AND ETA-KF
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 3000-4500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS
REGION.  CINH IS REMOVED FOR
1. MID-UPPER 90S F SFC TEMPS...WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN FCST...AND/OR
2. ENHANCED FRONTAL ASCENT...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARE
EXPECT TO REMAIN N OF CANADIAN BORDER. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN WITH SWD EXTENT OVER NRN/CENTRAL CONUS...BENEATH
RELATIVELY WARM 700 AND 500 MB TEMPS...RENDERING NEAR-FRONTAL SEVERE
THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL WITH INCREASING DISTANCE FROM BORDER. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED...PRIND PROBABILITIES ARE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FRONTAL FORCING AND DIABATIC HEATING TO BREAK CAP THAT CATEGORICAL
RISK SHOULD EXTEND INTO ERN SD.

SINCE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE FARTHER N ACROSS
CANADA...BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SOME WLY COMPONENT...LIMITING SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. 
HOWEVER...35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB/SD
BORDER NWD.  FARTHER SW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH WITH MIDLEVEL
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  HOWEVER...INTENSE SFC HEATING AND RESULTANT
DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG-SEVERE GUST
AND HAIL POTENTIAL IN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP.  MOST
PROBABLE AREA/TIME FOR SUCH ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM NERN CO
ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB...IN 21Z-01Z TIME FRAME.

..EDWARDS/BANACOS.. 06/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.