[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231628
SWODY1
SPC AC 231626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
CMX 25 SE IWD 45 WNW EAU 15 WSW OTG 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW VTN 35 ESE PHP
15 W ABR 40 SSE JMS 75 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB
20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE
...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV
25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW
LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50
ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN/NW WI....

...DAKOTAS/MN/NW WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EWD
OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE AN EMBEDDED SPEED
MAX OVER MT EJECTS EWD/ENEWD NEAR AND JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
 AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MN BY EARLY TONIGHT...PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
BEEN SWEPT EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ON THE NOSE OF A VERY WARM
EML PLUME OVER THE DAKOTAS.  850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 27-30 C AT THE
BASE OF THE EML ARE PROVIDING A STRONG CAP OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 F.  MEANWHILE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO WRN ND...IN PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT.  RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUE WITH MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NE ND/MN BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE BMJ
CONVECTIVE SCHEME /WHICH DOES NOT CONSIDER CIN/ AND THE BELT OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.

STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING ALONG OR A LITTLE BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE ASCENT
WILL GRADUALLY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  LOCAL DEEPENING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONT...BENEATH
THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO MN. DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS...THOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CAA IN THE AREA WHERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM AS FAR SW AS THE HIGH PLAINS.  DEEP
INVERTED-V PROFILES AND WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.