[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230113
SWODY1
SPC AC 230111

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW
DVL 35 ESE RAP 40 WSW RAP 20 SSW 4BQ 45 NE COD JAC 20 E IDA BTM 40
NNW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E ANJ 40 NE PLN
PLN AUW LSE MLI MTO MVN VIH FSD HON PIR MHN 35 W GLD 30 ESE 4CR TCS
SAD 15 SSW DUG ...CONT... 15 SSW YUM DAG NFL LOL WMC 27U 55 E S80
S80 ALW EPH 60 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE FLO CLT TRI BLF
CHO BWI ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
NRN ROCKIES REGIONS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR MOST OF CONUS WILL REMAIN INTENSE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH...WITH RIDGING NWD ACROSS MB.  SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING OFFSHORE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS...WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS STABILIZATION
COMMENCES THROUGH MUCH OF TROPOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...SECOND STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- WILL MOVE WED
ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NRN ID...INTO WRN MT BY END OF PERIOD. 
LOWER AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION -- NOW EMBEDDED IN MEAN RIDGE POSITION
OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN -- IS FCST TO TURN SEWD ACROSS MN OVERNIGHT.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES...
AS NWRN TROUGH APCHS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER THIS TENDENCY WILL
BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY DIABATIC SFC STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET. 
CLUSTER OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN ID INTO SWRN MT AND EXTREME NWRN
WY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND MAR5GINALLY SEVERE HAIL. 
ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPLY MIXED
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYERS...WITH SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS COMMONLY
IN 40-50 DEG F RANGE.  THIS WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE SUBCLOUD
EVAPORATIVE COOLING.  RELATED ACCELERATION IN PARCEL DESCENT
CONTRIBUTING TO SFC GUST THREAT...PARTICULARLY ON SWWD SLOPES FACING
MEAN WIND.

OTHERWISE REF WW 512 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM
POTENTIAL FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF MT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT ALSO
INCREASING SBCIN.  EXPECT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL AFTER 03Z.

...NRN MN TO UPPER MI...
STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REPRESENTED BY 00Z INL SOUNDING SHOULD
SHIFT ACROSS MORE OF WRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT IN COMBINATION
WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION INVOF SWLY LLJ. THIS WILL RENDER AIR
MASS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION.  LIMITING FACTORS
WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION...AND FOR ACTIVITY
MOVING SEWD FROM NWRN ONT -- VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER
NRN MN AND NRN WI...WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.