[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 222009
SWODY1
SPC AC 222007

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N
CMX 45 NE DLH 50 ESE BJI 25 SSW TVF 50 NNW GFK 35 NNW DVL 45 W DVL
30 N BIS 45 S BIS 30 NW PHP 20 E RAP 35 ESE 81V 20 SSW 4BQ 45 ESE
LVM 40 W 3HT 85 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CRE 25 WSW CAE
55 NNW AHN 30 SW CSV 40 SSE PAH 15 NE TBN 20 E FNB 15 SW SUX 25 NNE
YKN 40 SSW MHE 10 ESE BBW 40 NNE GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NW CAO 40 NW 4CR
30 WSW SVC 60 E DUG ...CONT... 30 SW IPL 10 N DAG 40 SW TPH 50 NNW
U31 60 NNE BOI 75 S S80 35 W S06 30 WNW GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 15
ESE MQT 10 ENE RHI 35 E EAU 35 S LSE 20 WNW MLI 50 SSW HUF 25 SSW
LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB DUJ ALB 25 NE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 40 WSW HOU
25 NNE HOU 25 SW POE 20 W MCB 45 SE LUL 10 NW DHN 10 NE SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO NRN MN...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST REGENERATING
TSTMS ON UPSHEAR SIDE OF DECAYING ERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO MCS. 
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS THE BORDER INTO ND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT IS
TOPPING RIDGE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO TURN EWD TOWARD MN.  ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS EXPANDING CLUSTER
OVER ND...STRONG INHIBITION...ROUGHLY 100-200J/KG...WILL LIKELY
PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPMENT FORCING PARCELS TO REMAIN ROOTED
ABOVE THE CAP. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. 
WITH TIME MANITOBA CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE
MOVING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR...HOWEVER THIS
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER.  DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY LATE.

STRONG HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIATION WILL
BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM UT/CO...NWD INTO SWRN MT.  ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF WEAK SWRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES ENHANCING THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PROSPECT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD WITHIN OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO INTO
WRN NEB WITH AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME HAIL OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

FARTHER NORTH...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS WRN ND/ERN MT HAS
SUPPRESSED BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT SUBSIDENCE IS WEAKENING UPSTREAM OVER SWRN MT
WHERE CU FIELD IS THICKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IN
ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVER MT THIS EVENING AS SPEED
MAX MOVES INTO SWRN SASKATCHEWAN.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
DECREASED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AND HIGH BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. 
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD WRN ND LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...NERN U.S./MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
INTO UPSTATE NY.  SCATTERED STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH
THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD OFFSHORE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL...IT
APPEARS A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS BEFORE
DIURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING UPDRAFTS.

...IA/MO/IL...

VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE FROM SRN IL...NWWD INTO CNTRL IA. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALONG THIS ZONE MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN ALLOWING PARCELS TO
REACH THEIR LFC.  IF SO...BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE BUOYANT AND
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.  IF CONVECTION DOES
EVOLVE...IT WOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SSWWD BEFORE DECREASING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEAT.

..DARROW.. 06/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.