[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221632
SWODY1
SPC AC 221630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N
CMX 45 NE DLH 50 ESE BJI 25 SSW TVF 50 NNW GFK 35 NNW DVL 45 W DVL
30 N BIS 45 S BIS 30 NW PHP 20 E RAP 35 ESE 81V 20 SSW 4BQ 45 ESE
LVM 40 W 3HT 85 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MQT 35 S LSE
30 NW SPI 50 SSW HUF 25 SSW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB 20 ENE JHW 15 N
ALB 25 NE PWM ...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 55 WSW MLU 35 SW HOT 30 NNW EMP
30 SW BIE 10 SSE GRI 15 SSW BBW 15 ENE IML 35 N GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NW
CAO 35 N SVC 40 SSW SAD 15 S DUG ...CONT... 25 ENE CZZ 10 N DAG 40
SW TPH 50 NNW U31 60 NNE BOI 75 S S80 35 W S06 30 WNW GEG 40 NNE
4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM ERN MT TO NRN MN....

...NRN PLAINS AREA...
THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE DAKOTAS.  SEVERAL
SPEED MAXIMA ARE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE...THE MOST OBVIOUS OF WHICH
IS MOVING ENEWD OVER ERN MT/SE SASKATCHEWAN.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SPEED MAX...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS MOVING ESEWD OVER SRN
MANITOBA.  THE INSTABILITY FEED FOR THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
JUST OFF THE SURFACE FROM THE SSW...WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FLOW REGIME AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MN DO NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTION INTO MN. 
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL ACROSS
NRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE MANITOBA
STORMS...BUT THE MANITOBA STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY FAR
INTO MN BEFORE WEAKENING.

FARTHER W...A MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME IS OVERSPREADING WRN/CENTRAL ND
AND NW SD IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF ERN
MT.  ASIDE FROM SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THIS PLUME...IT
APPEARS THAT A WARM EML /700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 12-14 C/ WILL TEND
TO CAP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN.  THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD WARM AND DRY FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE EXPECTED.  AN
ISOLATED STORM MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE THE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IMPINGES ON THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE.  IF STORMS FORM...VERTICAL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

LATER TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS
ACROSS ERN MT INVOF A SE MOVING COLD FRONT.  THOUGH CAPE WILL BE
LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE...VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 
MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS.  

...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS LACKING...THOUGH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS ERN IA/SW IL MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F...WITH
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  IF STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF W/SW
PROPAGATING STORMS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT.

...MID ATLANTIC AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.  ACTIVITY THIS
AREA SHOULD BE FOCUSED BY A SE MOVING COLD FRONT...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AREA.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.