[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221236
SWODY1
SPC AC 221234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N
CMX 40 WNW IWD 50 ESE BRD 20 SSE FAR 10 SE DVL 40 ESE MOT 30 N BIS
45 NNW MBG 35 NW PHP 40 W RAP 20 SSW 4BQ 20 ESE LVM 40 WNW 3HT 85
ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 55 WSW MLU
35 SW HOT 30 NNW EMP 30 SW BIE 10 SSE GRI 15 SSW BBW 15 ENE IML 35 N
GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NNW CAO 35 SW LVS 60 WNW TCS 30 NNE TUS 15 SSW FHU
...CONT... 20 SSW IPL 30 ESE DAG 60 WNW DRA 25 S BAM 60 NNE BOI 70
ENE 63S ...CONT... 15 ESE MQT 35 S LSE 30 WSW PIA 35 WNW EVV 20 SW
LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB 20 ENE JHW 15 N ALB 30 NW EPM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY
AS TROUGH FINALLY PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET SPREADING EWD OVER MUCH OF MT.  AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM NE-SW
FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN MT INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL MT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL MOVE ESEWD OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SSWLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO MAINTAIN 50-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO NERN
MT TODAY DESPITE STRONG DIURNAL MIXING/HEATING.  WITH INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND NERN MT.  SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROVE QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES AS STORMS SHIFT ENEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

FARTHER SOUTH...LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED
TODAY FROM ERN MT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING JUST TO ITS EAST. CONVERGENCE AND
MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ATOP A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKLY
ORGANIZED/BRIEF OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT WOULD INCREASE NWD INTO 20-30 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN SD/SERN MT/SWRN ND...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS REGION
IN SLGT RISK TODAY.

...ND INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
SEVERE THREAT AT BIT MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS REGION THAN POINTS
FARTHER WEST.  OVERNIGHT RUNS OF NAM AND GFS STILL CONSISTENT IN
SUSTAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY
AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SSEWD INTO MN LATER
TODAY/THIS EVENING.  IF THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE / I.E. MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG / AND
SHEARED /40-50 KT SFC-6 KM SHEAR / TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WITH
ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP SSEWD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...
POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY.  THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER WEAK...PRESENCE OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER A VERY WARM AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  THUS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 06/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.