[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220447
SWODY1
SPC AC 220446

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 N
CMX 30 W IWD 45 ESE BRD 15 SE FAR 35 SSE DVL 35 SE MOT 35 ESE SDY 40
W GDV 65 W MLS 25 SSE LVM 20 SW BZN 20 S HLN 40 NE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 55 WSW MLU
35 SW HOT 30 NNW EMP 30 SW BIE 10 SSE GRI 15 SSW BBW 15 ENE IML 35 N
GLD 35 ENE LAA 10 NNW CAO 35 SW LVS 60 WNW TCS 30 NNE TUS 15 SSW FHU
...CONT... 20 SSW IPL 35 SW EED 35 N DRA 40 NE U31 60 NNE BOI 70 ENE
63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MQT 35 S LSE
30 WSW PIA 35 WNW EVV 20 SW LEX 15 SE HTS 15 E PKB 20 WSW BFD 20 N
RUT 30 NW EPM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN MN WWD INTO MT...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE CANADIAN W
COAST EWD INTO THE PRAIRIES OF AB/SK AS TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST PHASES WITH INTENSIFYING SYSTEM DIVING SEWD ACROSS BC. AS A
RESULT...FLATTENING OF CNTRL CONUS RIDGE WILL OCCUR WITH REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND NERN STATES.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN
CANADA SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS ENEWD FROM CNTRL
AB INTO NWRN MB BY 23/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY
PUSH EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE
E...WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD OUT OF THE
NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WRN GREAT LAKES WWD TO MT...
REMOTE SENSOR DATA SHOW MCS EVOLVING TONIGHT OVER SRN AB INTO SWRN
SK...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES.
BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN COMPLEX ACROSS
SRN SK PRIOR TO 22/12Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS MCS TO DEVELOP
MORE SEWD TODAY INTO AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF
2500-3500 J/KG/ IN PLACE ACROSS NRN MN. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT
AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AHEAD OF EVOLVING WRN CANADA TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO INHIBIT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT S OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THUS...CATEGORICAL RISK ACROSS THIS AREA IS
CONDITIONAL ON STORMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER
CAP. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/BOWS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

FARTHER W...INCREASING SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A DRYING BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
FRONT OVER MT. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER COUPLED WITH THE LAPSE
RATES AND 40-5O KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS /HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

...ID/WY SWD THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS...
PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES/ COUPLED WITH DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHILE STRONGER STORMS OVER FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT STRONGER INSTABILITY.

...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF FRONT/TROUGH FROM E
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH AREA. WHILE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD/BANACOS.. 06/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.