[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220039
SWODY1
SPC AC 220037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
MOT 35 ESE MOT 30 N BIS 30 NW MBG 40 SW MBG 30 N PHP 25 SW PHP 35
NNW CDR 60 NE DGW 10 WSW GCC 10 W SHR 45 NW COD 30 E DLN 55 SW 3DU
45 ENE GEG 35 NNW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 15 E EAU 10
E LNR 20 S LAN 120 ENE APN ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 ESE DCA 35 W
ORF 40 N EWN 20 S ILM ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W
MEM 20 NNW ARG 35 S TBN 35 WNW SGF 35 NE BVO 25 NNW PNC 35 SSW EHA
35 N TCC 65 W CVS 45 ENE ALM ELP ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 25 SSW LAS 60
NE TPH 30 ENE WMC 95 E 4LW 4LW 35 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 10 E CEC 45 NNW
4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...

...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
 WA SEWD INTO SRN ID/SWRN MT...WITH ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL
WIND MAX FROM NWRN NV INTO SWRN MT. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WRN/CNTRL MT SWD
INTO WRN WY INTO NERN UT...AS WELL AS IN REGION OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NE OF OPENING UPPER LOW OVER WRN/CNTRL WA.

STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT DEEPER MIXING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS
RESULTED IN SOME LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS OVER WRN/CNTRL MT...THOUGH
AIR MASS STILL REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG. FARTHER E...00Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 4000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WITH APPROACH OF WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 50-60 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
POOL ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN MT OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO
THE W OVER PORTIONS OF WA...AND SEWD INTO SRN ID AND WRN WY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.