[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211957
SWODY1
SPC AC 211955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
DVL 40 W DVL 60 NE BIS 45 S JMS 40 NE BKX 40 SE FSD 10 ESE YKN 25 NE
AIA 55 ENE DGW 10 WSW GCC 10 W SHR 45 NW COD 30 E DLN 55 SW 3DU 45
ENE GEG 35 NNW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR
15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 35 S EMP 10 ESE ICT
40 ENE GAG 45 NW CDS 25 E INK 50 SW INK 70 SW GDP ...CONT... 10 SSW
YUM 10 SW DAG 35 WSW TPH 75 NW WMC 65 E 4LW 10 SSE 4LW 45 NW SVE RBL
55 W RBL 25 S CEC ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 NE DLH 35 ENE AUW 20 NNE
MBL 40 N APN ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 ESE DCA 35 W ORF 40 N EWN
20 S ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS...

...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...

LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND 18Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SUGGESTS INHIBITION
IS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL/NRN MT.  CONTINUED SUNSHINE
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SOON LEAVE AREA UNCAPPED...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG.  OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE NWD MOVING
THICKER CLOUD COVER INTO SWRN MT.  THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL ENHANCEMENT
APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS
LIFTED NWD FROM THE DESERT SW REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
OFF THE CA/ORE COAST.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS
NOW THICKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z.  RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NWD ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...AND HIGH SFC DEW POINTS/RH VALUES ALSO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AS UPDRAFTS ORGANIZE AND SPREAD TOWARD SRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.

IN ADDITION...WARM ADVECTION ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT HAS
ALLOWED STRONG TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER IN
SRN CANADA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST...NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SWD
DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN ND COULD OCCUR ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE
LOW ACROSS ERN ORE...WITH LATEST DATA INDICATING VALUES AOB HALF AN
INCH.  SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER CU
NOTED. SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION NORTH
AND EAST FROM EXTREME NERN WA INTO NRN ID WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY RESIDES.

...LOWER MI TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEP CONVERGENCE REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF THE BORDER...ROUGHLY 170MI...EXTENDING FROM ERN QUEBEC INTO
ONTARIO EAST OF SSM.  IT APPEARS THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT APPROACH NRN
NEW ENGLAND UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...BEYOND THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING.  THUS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES SOMEWHAT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER LOWER MI...DROPPING SWD TOWARD NWRN OH.  ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING ORGANIZED SEVERE LEVELS.

...SERN U.S...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS SC/GA. 
SCT-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BENEATH COLDER MID LEVEL
TROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE.  MARGINALLY
SEVER HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..DARROW.. 06/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.