[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211631
SWODY1
SPC AC 211630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW
MOT 40 NNE BIS 35 ENE BKX 40 SE FSD 10 ESE YKN 25 NE AIA 55 W CDR 10
W GCC 20 NNW SHR 45 SSE LVM 20 SSE DLN 60 SSW MSO 30 ENE S80 45 SW
S80 55 SSE BKE 20 NW BNO 65 ENE RDM 50 ENE DLS 45 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 10 SW DAG
35 WSW TPH 75 NW WMC 65 E 4LW 10 SSE 4LW 45 NW SVE RBL 55 W RBL 25 S
CEC ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 NE DLH 35 ENE AUW 20 NNE MBL 40 N APN
...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 ESE DCA 35 W ORF 40 N EWN 20 S ILM
...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S
TBN 55 SW SZL 35 S EMP 10 ESE ICT 40 ENE GAG 45 NW CDS 25 E INK 50
SW INK 70 SW GDP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MT AND THE DAKOTAS....

...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS/MT AREA...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS NEB GENERATED A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT IS
DRIFTING SWD OVER SE NEB...WHILE OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF NEB
AND ERN SD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  A SEPARATE MCS IS MOVING SEWD
ACROSS NRN SD...ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF THE REMAINING UNCONTAMINATED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PLUME ACROSS WRN SD.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE 12Z RAP SOUNDING WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SD.

FARTHER NW IN MT...THE 12Z GGW/TFX SOUNDINGS REVEALED MUCAPE NEAR
2500 J/KG ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  A LACK OF CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MT...WHERE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG.  EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL MT AND
SPREAD NNEWD TOWARD N CENTRAL MT/SE ALBERTA/SW SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE
EVENING/TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA THAT
WILL CREST NRN ROCKIES RIDGE TONIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE
SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/ WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME FROM AZ NWD TO ID.  MODIFYING FOR DAYTIME HEATING...INVERTED-V
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN A RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH FROM AZ NWD THROUGH
UT/ERN NV TO ID.

...SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER WRN NC/VA HAS ELONGATED NNE-SSW AND IS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.  COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES /NEAR -12 C/ AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE AREA FROM
NRN AL/GA TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.  SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

...LOWER MI TODAY TO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT...
REMNANTS OF A WEAK MCV /FROM CONVECTION YESTERDAY OVER MN/WI/ IS
MOVING SEWD OVER LOWER MI...WHILE A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGRESSING ESEWD OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA BY LATE
TODAY...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  A
NARROW PLUME OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM
WI/NRN LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...THOUGH THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL REMAIN IN SE CANADA
TODAY. A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MI...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST.  GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION MOVING SEWD INTO
NY/NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INVOF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA AS WELL.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.