[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211246
SWODY1
SPC AC 211244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE
MOT 35 SSW DVL 15 WSW EAU 25 E LSE 50 NW DBQ 40 W FOD 40 NW CDR 45
SE BIL 40 SSE LVM 40 N BYI 45 NNE OWY 40 SE BNO 40 ESE DLS 40 NE
BLI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
ERI 15 NNE CAK 30 W DAY 25 NNW IND 50 N LAF 20 NW AZO 45 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW
NHK 35 NNW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 25 S DAG
30 SW TPH 35 E NFL 20 W LOL SVE 15 ESE RBL 60 SE EKA 25 S CEC
...CONT... 10 ESE INL 10 NE HIB 10 W IWD 25 ENE MQT 70 NNW ANJ
...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4
35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 30 ENE
ICT 30 SSW HUT 40 W P28 35 SE LBL 50 WNW CDS 45 E HOB 70 SW GDP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION/ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT
LAKES...

...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THIS
AREA TODAY AS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFT NWD
AWAY FROM UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST.  MODELS CONSISTENT IN
STRENGTHENING SLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED SHEAR.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS. 
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ROBUST TODAY...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF INCREASED SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.  STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND SPREAD
NNEWD ACROSS WRN MT AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF CENTRAL/NERN MT
OVERNIGHT.

...NRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
FORECAST WILL BE COMPLICATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
DIMINISHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
MOVING INTO NRN SD AT 13Z.  NOT ONLY HAS CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVITY
LEFT AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE BUBBLE OF CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED
AIR...BUT THIS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING
BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY TODAY.

CONVECTIVE BUBBLE MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO ERODE AND LIMIT WARM
SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WNWWD INTO SD/CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING. 
EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE AIR MASS APPEARS
UNAFFECTED BY THE EARLIER STORMS.  HOWEVER...EVEN HERE CAPPING
SHOULD HINDER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER TODAY.  WILL
MAINTAIN LARGE SLGT FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY
DUE TO NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR...AS
AFTERNOON HEATING AND POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  MOST LIKELY
CORRIDOR FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE NEAR SURFACE FRONT FROM NERN
MT/NWRN SD SEWD TOWARDS SRN MN/FAR NRN IA.

...SRN/ERN GREAT LAKES...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A STEADY SEWD MOTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
SSEWD INTO THE EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY ALONG NOSE OF 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SUGGESTING SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL
LINES COULD OCCUR WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.