[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210508
SWODY1
SPC AC 210506

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
JHW 10 SW MFD 10 ESE IND 45 SSE UIN 15 NNW STJ 35 WNW EAR 25 WSW GCC
25 NNW SHR 50 SSE LVM 15 WNW BYI 40 NNE OWY 60 SE BNO 45 ESE DLS 45
NE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 20 S DVL 40 W FAR 20 W EAU 30 WNW OSH
40 ESE MBL 35 E OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 25 S DAG
30 SW TPH 35 E NFL 20 W LOL SVE 15 ESE RBL 60 SE EKA 25 S CEC
...CONT... 10 ESE INL 10 NE HIB 10 W IWD 25 ENE MQT 70 NNW ANJ
...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4
35 NW BTR 15 NW GLH 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 55 SW SZL 45 W EMP
45 W HUT 10 NE DDC 35 SE LBL 50 WNW CDS 45 E HOB 70 SW GDP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES NWWD
INTO THE PACIFIC NW...

...SYNOPSIS...
ERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND LIFT NEWD
INTO WRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
UPSTREAM HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF AK. MEANWHILE....BROAD AND
DOMINANT RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION...WHILE DOWNSTREAM FULL LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY EVOLVES
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND CANADA.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS ERN CANADA WILL SAG SEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WRN
EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN STRETCH NWWD THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES TO INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF ORE/WA.

...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
MCV /WELL INITIALIZED BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS/ OVER WI IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ WITHIN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL
AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY
AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI AND NRN/IL AND IND SWD TO THE OH RIVER.
DEVELOPMENT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM SWRN ONTARIO SEWD
INTO LOWER MI WILL RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS
FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER TO THE NE FROM NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...APPEARS STRONGEST
STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE N OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER INVOF ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...HOWEVER ISOLATED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FORECAST REGARDING EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN
MT AND THEIR IMPACT ON AIR MASS STABILITY AND ANY SUBSEQUENT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LARGE STORM COMPLEX
OVER SERN SD...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA MAY ORGANIZE A COLD POOL AND
PROPAGATE S/SEWD ALONG MO VALLEY PRIOR TO 21/12Z. FARTHER
NW...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT MAY MERGE INTO A MCS...POSSIBLY
BEING LOCATED OVER FAR NERN MT/WRN ND AT THE START OF THE DAY ONE
FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM CNTRL NEB NWWD
SERN MT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE NERN MT/WRN ND MCS TO
CONTINUE TODAY SEWD ALONG THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO CNTRL/ERN
SD AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NEB...IA AND MN. THE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES /POSSIBLY A
LARGER-SCALE BOW ECHO/ CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMNANT FROM NOCTURNAL
MID MO VALLEY MCS.

...PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...
SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH
OPENING TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO
WRN CANADA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE AIR MASS IS NOT FORECAST TO
BECOME PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
JET STREAKS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF ORE/WA EWD INTO
ID AND WRN MT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ACROSS DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AXIS. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA WILL
RESULT IN RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF
50-60 KTS/...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE TSTMS
/INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...HOWEVER RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE OUTFLOW/COLD
POOL PRODUCTION.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.